The School of Odds
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Al-Ittihad v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Ittihad 2–1 Al-Fayha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ittihad (Local)

Prediction 62.50%1.60fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.14%62.50%62.31%64.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.431.401.5775.19%69.96%71.43%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 17.13%5.84fair odd
EV +2.75%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.550%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%17.14%17.22%19.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.465.506.0022.22%18.32%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.38%4.91fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -0.764%
Kelly -0.969%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.52%20.36%20.47%20.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.474.504.7323.81%22.36%22.22%21.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 62.50%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 17.13%; Draw: 20.38%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -10.00%E -6.95%K -22.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +2.75%E +0.459%K +0.550%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -11.25%E -7.93%K -26.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV +2.75%E +0.459%K +0.550%G +0.015%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 17:49
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.89%EV -8.75%E -6.00%K -19.03%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 15.92%EV +0.354%E +0.060%K +0.073%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.19%EV -5.85%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 17:55
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.53%E -0.266%K -0.322%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.72%EV -15.00%E -11.03%K -41.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -4.10%E -0.732%K -0.891%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.56%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.72%EV -15.00%E -11.03%K -41.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -4.10%E -0.732%K -0.891%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.56%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-08 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.72%EV -15.00%E -11.03%K -41.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -4.10%E -0.732%K -0.891%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.56%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-08 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.25%E -4.17%K -12.51%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -10.00%E -6.95%K -22.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -10.00%E -6.95%K -22.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.34%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 17:50
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -10.34%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 17:55
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 17:45
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.76%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 17:45
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.50%E -8.93%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -5.81%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-08 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.58%EV -16.88%E -12.69%K -51.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.90%EV -7.52%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.52%EV -10.34%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-08 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.01%EV -4.38%E -2.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 17.93%EV -9.41%E -1.78%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.06%EV -3.61%E -0.764%K -0.969%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.10%EV -8.13%E -5.53%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -10.09%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.51%EV -9.32%E -2.09%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.18%EV -11.88%E -8.43%K -28.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -12.66%E -2.48%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.63%EV -13.39%E -3.15%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-08 17:55
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -1.88%E -1.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -14.37%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -1.88%E -1.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -14.37%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.30%E -1.84%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -6.25%E -4.17%K -12.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -16.09%E -3.28%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.26%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.56%EV -7.50%E -5.07%K -15.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.07%EV -19.51%E -4.15%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.37%EV -10.34%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.14%EV -10.00%E -6.95%K -22.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.24%EV -22.94%E -5.10%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -14.41%E -3.43%K -4.50%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-08 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.03%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-09-08 17:55
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.87%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.86%0.8%2026-09-08 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-09-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-09-08 17:55
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.91%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-09-08 17:55