The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Hilal v Damac

Kickoff: 2026-04-28 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Hilal 1–0 Damac

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 81.66%1.22fair odd
EV -7.73%
Edge -6.84%
Kelly -59.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.20%81.96%81.66%83.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.111.111.1392.59%90.03%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Damac (Visit)

Prediction 7.26%13.77fair odd
EV +8.93%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.96%7.05%7.26%9.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.4914.0015.0010.53%7.41%7.14%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.08%9.02fair odd
EV +10.81%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.30%10.99%11.08%13.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.847.5010.0014.81%12.75%13.33%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 81.66%; Damac (Visit): 7.26%; Draw: 11.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.81%EV -9.36%E -8.43%K -85.10%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.89%EV -1.96%E -0.145%K -0.157%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +10.81%E +1.08%K +1.20%G +0.130%7.5%2026-04-24 01:49
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.31%EV -8.54%E -7.63%K -71.21%G +0.000%13.13I 7.62%NM 7.11%EV -4.65%E -0.354%K -0.383%G +0.000%9.74I 10.27%NM 9.58%EV +7.93%E +0.814%K +0.908%G +0.072%7.2%2026-04-23 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.28%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV +1.67%E +0.119%K +0.129%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -0.267%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.28%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV +1.67%E +0.119%K +0.129%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -0.267%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 18:04
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.76%EV -9.36%E -8.43%K -85.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -5.81%E -0.683%K -0.774%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:00
William Hill🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.76%EV -9.36%E -8.43%K -85.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -5.81%E -0.683%K -0.774%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.76%EV -9.36%E -8.43%K -85.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -5.81%E -0.683%K -0.774%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.76%EV -9.36%E -8.43%K -85.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -5.81%E -0.683%K -0.774%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 16:00
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56%EV -8.54%E -7.63%K -71.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -5.59%E -0.430%K -0.466%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -11.35%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.50%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.43%EV -23.75%E -2.26%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.07%EV -11.35%E -1.42%K -1.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.12%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.44%EV -13.57%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.06%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43%EV -12.85%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.51%EV -14.12%E -1.82%K -2.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 13:45
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.45%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.54%E -7.63%K -71.21%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -16.89%E -2.25%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 79.20%EV -11.81%E -10.94%K -147.64%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.00%EV -31.01%E -3.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.80%EV -19.66%E -2.71%K -3.15%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-23 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.54%E -7.63%K -71.21%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 18:05
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -8.54%E -7.63%K -71.21%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV +8.93%E +0.596%K +0.638%G +0.057%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 16:49
Sky Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.40%EV -10.99%E -10.09%K -122.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.24%EV -23.75%E -2.26%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.36%EV -22.43%E -3.20%K -3.74%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-23 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 80.69%EV -10.99%E -10.09%K -122.16%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.28%EV +1.67%E +0.119%K +0.129%G +0.002%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.03%EV -25.20%E -3.73%K -4.38%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-21 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.09I 91.74%NM 78.48%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.55%6.60I 15.15%NM 12.96%16.9%2026-04-23 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 15:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 16:00