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Al-Hilal v Al-Najma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hilal (Local)
Prediction 86.17%1.16fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.92%
Kelly -39.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.62%86.38%86.04%89.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.051.1198.04%94.62%95.24%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Najma (Visit)
Prediction 5.31%18.84fair odd
EV +32.73%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.446%
assuming max odds 25.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.65%5.33%5.15%6.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.0019.9018.6025.007.14%5.03%5.38%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.52%11.73fair odd
EV +39.79%
Edge +2.43%
Kelly +2.58%
Growth +1.03%
assuming max odds 16.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.91%8.30%8.81%9.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.1511.1911.0016.4010.93%8.94%9.09%6.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 86.17%; Al-Najma (Visit): 5.31%; Draw: 8.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.73. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.88%EV -6.08%E -5.58%K -67.53%G +0.000% | 18.60I 5.38%NM 5.21%EV -1.25%E -0.067%K -0.071%G +0.000% | 16.40I 6.10%NM 5.91%EV +39.79%E +2.43%K +2.58%G +1.03% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.20%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 21.79I 4.59%NM 4.34%EV +15.69%E +0.720%K +0.755%G +0.118% | 14.64I 6.83%NM 6.46%EV +24.78%E +1.69%K +1.82%G +0.450% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.37%EV -4.35%E -3.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.64%EV -9.74%E -0.573%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.99%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 18:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.91%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +11.49%E +0.547%K +0.575%G +0.066% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.91%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +11.49%E +0.547%K +0.575%G +0.066% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.17%EV -7.80%E -7.29%K -111.44%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -20.36%E -1.36%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.28%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -20.36%E -1.36%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 9.3% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.28%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -20.36%E -1.36%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 9.3% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.28%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -20.36%E -1.36%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +2.28%E +0.190%K +0.207%G +0.005% | 9.3% | 2026-03-06 18:56 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.75%EV -4.35%E -3.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -9.74%E -0.573%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 18:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:16 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.56%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -4.43%E -0.246%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.34%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -20.36%E -1.36%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -6.24%E -0.567%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%EV -6.94%E -6.43%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -4.43%E -0.246%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -10.50%E -1.00%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.67%EV -10.39%E -9.99%K -259.65%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -10.50%E -1.00%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.67%EV -10.39%E -9.99%K -259.65%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV +32.73%E +1.31%K +1.36%G +0.446% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -10.50%E -1.00%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-06 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.27%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 4.90%EV -1.78%E -0.096%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.84%EV -12.63%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.71%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.29%EV -9.74%E -0.573%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -14.76%E -1.48%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-06 18:06 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.62%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -25.67%E -1.83%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -14.76%E -1.48%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.82%EV -10.39%E -9.99%K -259.65%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -9.74%E -0.573%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -14.76%E -1.48%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-06 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 87.23%EV -12.11%E -11.87%K -605.47%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV +22.11%E +0.961%K +1.01%G +0.222% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -14.76%E -1.48%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-06 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 87.23%EV -12.11%E -11.87%K -605.47%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.87%EV +22.11%E +0.961%K +1.01%G +0.222% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -14.76%E -1.48%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-06 14:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%EV -8.66%E -8.17%K -144.38%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV +11.49%E +0.547%K +0.575%G +0.066% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -19.03%E -2.00%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 84.78%EV -9.52%E -9.07%K -190.49%G +0.000% | 16.20I 6.17%NM 5.49%EV -13.99%E -0.864%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 9.15I 10.93%NM 9.73%EV -22.01%E -2.41%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.51% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.62% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.87% | 0.4% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.44% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.93% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.38% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.76% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.15% | 32.05I 3.12%NM 3.07% | 14.49I 6.90%NM 6.78% | 1.8% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |