The School of Odds
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Al-Hazem v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 15:55 UTC

Final: Al-Hazem 1–0 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 29.55%3.38fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.755%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.77%29.63%29.76%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.143.173.3035.71%31.82%31.55%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 42.30%2.36fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.46%42.25%42.14%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.122.102.2651.02%47.24%47.62%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.15%3.55fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%28.12%28.09%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.153.4033.33%31.44%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 29.55%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 42.30%; Draw: 28.15%. For Al-Hazem (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -2.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -2.49%E -0.755%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-08 15:30
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -4.27%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.50%E -2.61%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 15:30
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.97%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -12.02%E -5.78%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 15:10
1xBet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.82%EV -4.26%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.45%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.50%E -2.61%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 15:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 15:25
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.90%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 15:30
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.56%EV -13.71%E -6.72%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-08 15:10
Pinnacle🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.83%EV -5.74%E -1.80%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.10%EV -4.41%E -1.95%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.07%EV -4.55%E -1.34%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.41%EV -14.56%E -7.21%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-08 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.84%EV -6.92%E -2.20%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.41%EV -14.56%E -7.21%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-08 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.50%E -2.61%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 15:25
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 15:25
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:30
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.18%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.72%E -4.10%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.66%EV -7.79%E -3.57%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.56%EV -10.47%E -3.29%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 15:29
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.99%EV -9.88%E -3.24%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.55%EV -17.10%E -8.72%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.46%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-08 15:10
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.36%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -9.90%E -3.10%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-08 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -11.36%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.84%EV -13.29%E -6.48%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -11.31%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-08 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -15.79%E -5.54%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.09%E -2.15%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -17.27%E -6.17%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -6.95%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -8.50%E -2.61%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-08 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.1%2026-09-08 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.65%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-09-08 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-09-08 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-09-08 15:35
Smarkets◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%2.3%2026-09-08 15:35