The School of Odds
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Al-Fayha v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Fayha 0–3 Al-Hilal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 9.28%10.77fair odd
EV +20.68%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.356%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.09%9.07%9.53%9.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.3910.5013.0011.11%9.62%9.52%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 75.18%1.33fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -13.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.67%75.39%75.28%78.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.201.211.2887.72%83.01%82.64%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.54%6.44fair odd
EV +3.17%
Edge +0.477%
Kelly +0.562%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 6.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.19%15.54%15.20%16.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.795.756.6418.52%17.28%17.39%15.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 9.28%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 75.18%; Draw: 15.54%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.77. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV +20.68%E +1.59%K +1.72%G +0.356%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.06%EV -11.29%E -9.57%K -62.71%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.86%EV -3.67%E -0.592%K -0.705%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-20 15:40
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV +11.40%E +0.950%K +1.04%G +0.118%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -12.04%E -10.29%K -70.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -6.78%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-20 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV +11.40%E +0.950%K +1.04%G +0.118%1.15I 86.96%NM 77.67%EV -13.54%E -11.78%K -90.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -6.78%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-20 17:55
SportsBet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV +6.76%E +0.587%K +0.643%G +0.043%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.43%EV -11.29%E -9.57%K -62.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV -2.89%E -0.463%K -0.551%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-20 17:30
1xBet🎯11.20I 8.93%NM 8.62%EV +3.97%E +0.355%K +0.389%G +0.015%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.65%EV -5.27%E -4.19%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.72%EV +1.93%E +0.293%K +0.346%G +0.007%3.5%2026-08-20 17:55
Pinnacle🎯11.02I 9.07%NM 8.55%EV +2.30%E +0.209%K +0.230%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.25%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.19%EV +3.17%E +0.477%K +0.562%G +0.018%6.1%2026-08-20 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.69%EV +2.11%E +0.192%K +0.211%G +0.004%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.68%EV -3.77%E -2.95%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.63%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-20 18:00
Coral🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +2.11%E +0.192%K +0.211%G +0.004%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.03%E -4.82%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-20 17:35
betfred_uk🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV +2.11%E +0.192%K +0.211%G +0.004%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 15:39
Unibet (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV +2.11%E +0.192%K +0.211%G +0.004%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.54%E -8.85%K -55.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.78%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-20 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -6.03%E -4.82%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 16:20
Unibet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.43%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.43%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.69%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.43%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.99%E -2.32%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 18:00
Grosvenor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.99%E -2.32%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.99%E -2.32%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-20 18:00
Sky Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.47%EV -2.53%E -0.241%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.05%EV -12.04%E -10.29%K -70.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -10.66%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -7.17%E -0.717%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.04%EV -11.29%E -9.57%K -62.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-20 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -7.17%E -0.717%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -12.04%E -10.29%K -70.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-20 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -7.17%E -0.717%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -12.04%E -10.29%K -70.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-20 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -9.03%E -7.47%K -43.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -6.78%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-20 17:32
Winamax (DE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.85%EV -9.78%E -8.15%K -48.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -2.89%E -0.463%K -0.551%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 16:39
BoyleSports🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-20 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.02%EV -11.81%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 75.13%EV -14.30%E -12.54%K -102.11%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.86%EV -16.10%E -2.98%K -3.66%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-20 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-20 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-20 17:49
William Hill🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-20 17:49
888sport🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -8.28%E -6.79%K -37.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -14.54%E -2.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-20 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -16.45%E -1.83%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -10.54%E -8.85%K -55.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -6.78%E -1.13%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-20 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.41%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-08-20 17:55
Kalshi◎14.29I 7.00%NM 6.93%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.21%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%1.0%2026-08-20 17:55
Smarkets◎16.00I 6.25%NM 6.18%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.70%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%1.2%2026-08-20 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎16.00I 6.25%NM 6.18%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.70%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%1.2%2026-08-20 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎15.50I 6.45%NM 6.36%1.24I 80.65%NM 79.55%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.09%1.4%2026-08-20 17:55