The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Okhdood

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 48.79%2.05fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.20%48.71%48.87%53.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.831.852.0259.88%54.76%54.20%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Okhdood (Visit)

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV +6.70%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.138%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.61%25.08%25.13%26.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.793.714.2530.30%26.38%26.92%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.21%26.00%28.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.463.503.6633.33%28.88%28.57%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 48.79%; Al-Okhdood (Visit): 25.11%; Draw: 26.10%. For Al-Okhdood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.16%EV -15.59%E -9.01%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV +6.70%E +1.58%K +2.06%G +0.138%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -4.72%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -16.57%E -9.69%K -23.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV +5.45%E +1.30%K +1.70%G +0.093%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-23 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -18.52%E -11.09%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV +2.93%E +0.716%K +0.947%G +0.028%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-23 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -18.52%E -11.09%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV +2.93%E +0.716%K +0.947%G +0.028%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-23 18:55
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.05%EV -1.45%E -0.716%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.14%EV +0.926%E +0.230%K +0.307%G +0.003%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -8.89%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-23 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.23%EV -5.84%E -3.02%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.81%EV -3.84%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.96%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-23 18:55
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.81%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-23 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.74%E -5.26%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.30%E -3.84%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-23 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.45%EV -11.20%E -6.16%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.46%EV -7.61%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -9.94%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-23 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -2.42%E -1.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-23 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -9.25%E -4.97%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.33%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-23 18:44
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -7.30%E -3.84%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -11.24%E -3.31%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-23 18:49
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.81%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.24%E -3.31%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-23 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -10.23%E -5.56%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -9.94%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-23 18:45
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.74%E -5.26%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -16.46%E -5.15%K -7.48%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-23 18:55
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.74%E -5.26%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -16.46%E -5.15%K -7.48%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-23 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.74%E -5.26%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -16.46%E -5.15%K -7.48%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-23 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.47%EV -9.74%E -5.26%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -12.13%E -3.47%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -16.46%E -5.15%K -7.48%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-23 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.15%EV -12.67%E -7.08%K -16.03%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.35%EV -12.88%E -3.71%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.50%EV -9.94%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-23 18:44
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -6.81%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -13.85%E -4.20%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-23 18:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -10.72%E -5.86%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -11.24%E -3.31%K -4.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.20%EV -10.72%E -5.86%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.62%EV -17.15%E -5.20%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.18%EV -21.69%E -7.23%K -10.84%G +0.000%18.3%2026-02-23 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61%0.2%2026-02-23 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.97%1.6%2026-02-23 18:55
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.72%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%2.7%2026-02-23 18:55