The School of Odds
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Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad

Kickoff: 2026-05-14 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Ettifaq 1–3 Al-Ittihad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +1.70%
Edge +0.484%
Kelly +0.676%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%28.94%28.75%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.203.5234.48%31.26%31.25%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ittihad (Visit)

Prediction 47.23%2.12fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.83%47.20%47.30%48.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.931.932.0554.95%51.93%51.81%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.88%4.19fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.679%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.03%23.86%23.95%26.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.713.704.1031.25%26.94%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 28.89%; Al-Ittihad (Visit): 47.23%; Draw: 23.88%. For Al-Ettifaq (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.57%EV +1.70%E +0.484%K +0.676%G +0.012%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.76%EV -6.01%E -3.02%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -2.11%E -0.514%K -0.679%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.54%EV -8.37%E -4.32%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:55
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -3.21%E -0.957%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Pinnacle🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.07%EV -6.48%E -3.28%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.27%EV -2.34%E -0.573%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-14 17:51
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -8.85%E -4.58%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -9.32%E -4.85%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -12.85%E -3.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 17:55
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -9.32%E -4.85%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -12.85%E -3.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 17:55
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.08%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.08%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 17:35
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.90%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 17:35
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.90%E -4.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -10.46%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 17:55
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.34%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.48%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -10.46%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-14 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.23%EV -11.21%E -5.96%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.01%EV -15.24%E -4.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-14 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.23%EV -11.21%E -5.96%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.01%EV -15.24%E -4.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-14 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.64%EV -12.62%E -6.82%K -14.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.82%EV -15.24%E -4.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-14 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 28.27%EV -9.56%E -3.06%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.62%EV -14.04%E -7.72%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.11%EV -8.55%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-14 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 17:35
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.04%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:35
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.04%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:50
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.04%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.04%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.04%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.83%EV -9.79%E -5.13%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -10.46%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-14 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.38%EV -7.43%E -3.79%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -6.88%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-14 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 27.96%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 45.83%EV -13.57%E -7.41%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.21%EV -23.59%E -7.37%K -10.72%G +0.000%19.2%2026-05-14 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -14.76%E -5.01%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.12%EV -8.37%E -4.32%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-14 17:35
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.78%EV -16.21%E -5.59%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.19%EV -13.57%E -7.41%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -10.46%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-14 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-05-14 17:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-05-14 17:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-05-14 17:51
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.07%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-05-14 17:31
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.74%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%2.3%2026-05-14 17:55