Language:English
Al-Ahli v Al-Riyadh
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ahli (Local)
Prediction 73.32%1.36fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -3.60%
Kelly -15.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.59%73.24%73.21%75.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.3083.33%80.06%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Riyadh (Visit)
Prediction 10.66%9.38fair odd
EV +6.64%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +0.738%
Growth +0.049%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.21%10.61%10.87%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.588.5010.0013.33%11.65%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.01%6.24fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.263%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.33%16.15%15.92%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.385.336.1620.41%18.58%18.78%16.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 73.32%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 10.66%; Draw: 16.01%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.38. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +6.64%E +0.664%K +0.738%G +0.049% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV +6.64%E +0.664%K +0.738%G +0.049% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.31%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.37%EV +3.97%E +0.408%K +0.454%G +0.018% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.32%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.72%EV +2.37%E +0.247%K +0.276%G +0.007% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 15.65%EV -4.56%E -0.765%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV +1.31%E +0.138%K +0.154%G +0.002% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV +1.31%E +0.138%K +0.154%G +0.002% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.24%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.03%EV -1.36%E -0.147%K -0.165%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -5.52%E -0.936%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -4.68%E -3.60%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -4.68%E -3.60%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.79%EV -6.15%E -4.80%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.68I 11.52%NM 10.88%EV -7.44%E -0.857%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 6.16I 16.23%NM 15.33%EV -1.36%E -0.221%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.99%EV -9.08%E -7.32%K -37.83%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -18.33%E -3.59%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.68%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -15.93%E -3.03%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-04 12:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.18%EV -11.28%E -9.32%K -53.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.42%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.40%EV -13.53%E -2.51%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.09%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.49%EV -5.52%E -0.936%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.44%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.44%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 71.69%EV -12.01%E -10.01%K -60.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.75%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.56%EV -21.54%E -4.39%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-09-04 03:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.55%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.51%EV -17.35%E -2.24%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.94%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-04 10:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-04 10:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-04 10:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-04 10:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.54% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.48% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 11:20 |