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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Al-Ahli v Al-Riyadh

开赛时间： 2026-09-04 18:00 UTC

最终结果： Al-Ahli 5–0 Al-Riyadh

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

30 家博彩公司 (7 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Al-Ahli (主队)

预测 73.32%1.36公平赔率
EV -4.68%
优势 -3.60%
Kelly -15.60%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.30

博彩公司预测分布
70.59%73.24%73.21%75.45%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.201.251.251.3083.33%80.06%80.00%76.92%最小值均值中位数最大值

Al-Riyadh (客队)

预测 10.66%9.38公平赔率
EV +6.64%
优势 +0.664%
Kelly +0.738%
增长率 +0.049%

假设最高赔率为 10.00

博彩公司预测分布
9.21%10.61%10.87%11.76%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
7.508.588.5010.0013.33%11.65%11.76%10.00%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 16.01%6.24公平赔率
EV -1.36%
优势 -0.221%
Kelly -0.263%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 6.16

博彩公司预测分布
15.33%16.15%15.92%17.65%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.905.385.336.1620.41%18.58%18.78%16.23%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Al-Ahli (主队)：73.32%；Al-Riyadh (客队)：10.66%；平局：16.01%。 对于“Al-Riyadh (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为9.38。 当时有6家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为10.00，对应+6.64%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (30 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +6.64%E +0.664%K +0.738%G +0.049%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV +6.64%E +0.664%K +0.738%G +0.049%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:25
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.31%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.37%EV +3.97%E +0.408%K +0.454%G +0.018%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.32%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 12:29
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.72%EV +2.37%E +0.247%K +0.276%G +0.007%5.96I 16.78%NM 15.65%EV -4.56%E -0.765%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV +1.31%E +0.138%K +0.154%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV +1.31%E +0.138%K +0.154%G +0.002%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 12:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.24%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.03%EV -1.36%E -0.147%K -0.165%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -5.52%E -0.936%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -4.68%E -3.60%K -15.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.42%EV -4.68%E -3.60%K -15.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 12:25
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -4.02%E -0.447%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:29
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.79%EV -6.15%E -4.80%K -21.95%G +0.000%8.68I 11.52%NM 10.88%EV -7.44%E -0.857%K -0.968%G +0.000%6.16I 16.23%NM 15.33%EV -1.36%E -0.221%K -0.263%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -6.88%E -5.42%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -16.73%E -3.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 03:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.99%EV -9.08%E -7.32%K -37.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -18.33%E -3.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 03:50
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.68%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.89%EV -15.93%E -3.03%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.18%EV -11.28%E -9.32%K -53.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.42%EV -9.36%E -1.10%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.40%EV -13.53%E -2.51%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.09%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.49%EV -5.52%E -0.936%K -1.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.55%E -8.64%K -47.94%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.44%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-04 03:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.44%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-04 03:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 71.69%EV -12.01%E -10.01%K -60.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.75%EV -14.69%E -1.84%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.56%EV -21.54%E -4.39%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-04 03:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.55%EV -9.81%E -7.98%K -42.66%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.51%EV -17.35%E -2.24%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.94%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 14:35
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 10:35
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 10:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 10:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -8.35%E -6.68%K -33.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -20.02%E -2.67%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 10:35
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.54%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-09-04 13:45
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.48%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71%1.9%2026-09-04 11:20