Language:English
Al-Ahli v Al-Okhdood
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ahli (Local)
Prediction 79.80%1.25fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -16.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.52%79.69%80.05%81.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.151.2190.91%87.23%86.96%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Okhdood (Visit)
Prediction 7.32%13.65fair odd
EV +12.05%
Edge +0.788%
Kelly +0.843%
Growth +0.102%
assuming max odds 15.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.96%7.26%7.33%8.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.3514.0015.3010.00%7.49%7.14%6.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.87%7.77fair odd
EV +8.12%
Edge +0.967%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.089%
assuming max odds 8.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.21%13.06%12.62%15.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.836.758.4018.18%14.64%14.81%11.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 79.80%; Al-Okhdood (Visit): 7.32%; Draw: 12.87%. For Al-Okhdood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.65. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.46%EV -3.44%E -2.84%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 15.30I 6.54%NM 6.36%EV +12.05%E +0.788%K +0.843%G +0.102% | 7.39I 13.53%NM 13.17%EV -4.88%E -0.660%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.19%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.66%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -11.42%E -10.29%K -103.79%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.13%EV -9.82%E -8.69%K -75.54%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV +9.86%E +0.657%K +0.704%G +0.069% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -22.77%E -3.80%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -9.82%E -8.69%K -75.54%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV +2.53%E +0.181%K +0.195%G +0.005% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.62%EV -12.21%E -11.10%K -122.15%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV +2.53%E +0.181%K +0.195%G +0.005% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%EV -11.42%E -10.29%K -103.79%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%EV +2.53%E +0.181%K +0.195%G +0.005% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -16.34%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%EV -11.42%E -10.29%K -103.79%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%EV +2.53%E +0.181%K +0.195%G +0.005% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -16.34%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 79.97%EV -12.21%E -11.10%K -122.15%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.28%EV +2.53%E +0.181%K +0.195%G +0.005% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.75%EV -17.62%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.50%EV -6.63%E -5.67%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.80%EV -1.13%E -0.084%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.70%EV -19.55%E -3.13%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.63%E -5.67%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -4.79%E -0.368%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -16.34%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 17:58 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.63%E -5.67%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -4.79%E -0.368%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -16.34%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 17:58 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.20%EV -6.63%E -5.67%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -8.45%E -0.676%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.57%EV -25.35%E -4.37%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.16%EV -7.43%E -6.40%K -46.42%G +0.000% | 12.33I 8.11%NM 7.64%EV -9.70%E -0.786%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV +8.12%E +0.967%K +1.10%G +0.089% | 6.2% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.62%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.41%EV -10.28%E -0.839%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.97%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -12.11%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -12.11%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -9.02%E -7.91%K -64.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -12.11%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -6.63%E -5.67%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -12.11%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -22.77%E -3.80%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.93%EV -11.42%E -10.29%K -103.79%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -12.11%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.23%E -3.53%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -19.44%E -1.77%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -4.23%E -3.53%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -19.44%E -1.77%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 75.52%EV -8.22%E -7.15%K -54.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.69%EV -26.76%E -2.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.79%EV -29.21%E -5.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 76.84%EV -9.82%E -8.69%K -75.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.68%EV -26.76%E -2.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.47%EV -22.77%E -3.80%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-03 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.03% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.96% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.02% | 0.9% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.03% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.96% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.02% | 0.9% | 2026-05-03 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.38% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.27% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.34% | 2.5% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.43% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.76% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.81% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |