Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ahli v Abha Club

2026-08-22 18:00 UTC — Saudi Pro League

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ahli (Local)

Prediction 75.50%1.32fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -18.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.04%75.43%75.50%77.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.211.2684.75%82.12%82.99%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abha Club (Visit)

Prediction 9.57%10.45fair odd
EV +5.30%
Edge +0.481%
Kelly +0.530%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.33%9.76%9.57%11.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.259.038.5511.0013.79%11.07%11.69%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.93%6.70fair odd
EV +1.95%
Edge +0.286%
Kelly +0.335%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.53%14.81%14.93%16.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.725.756.8319.61%17.48%17.39%14.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Al-Ahli (Local): 75.50%; Abha Club (Visit): 9.57%; Draw: 14.93%. For Abha Club (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.45. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.50%EV -8.64%E -7.14%K -41.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +5.30%E +0.481%K +0.530%G +0.028%6.71I 14.90%NM 13.98%EV +0.160%E +0.024%K +0.028%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-19 00:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +5.30%E +0.481%K +0.530%G +0.028%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-18 18:34
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +5.30%E +0.481%K +0.530%G +0.028%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-18 18:35
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV +0.510%E +0.049%K +0.054%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-18 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.28%E -0.428%K -0.475%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -2.97%E -0.458%K -0.541%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -4.28%E -0.428%K -0.475%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-18 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.44%EV -7.13%E -5.80%K -31.02%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -9.06%E -0.954%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -14.17%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 20:30
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -9.06%E -0.954%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -13.42%E -2.31%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-19 00:50
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -9.06%E -0.954%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -14.17%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-19 00:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -9.06%E -0.954%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -14.17%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-19 00:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -9.06%E -0.954%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -14.17%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-19 00:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -10.15%E -8.53%K -53.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -13.85%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-18 20:30
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.74%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.86%G +0.000%8.61I 11.61%NM 10.73%EV -17.58%E -2.04%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.83I 14.64%NM 13.53%EV +1.95%E +0.286%K +0.335%G +0.007%8.2%2026-08-18 18:35
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:34
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.38%EV -4.87%E -3.86%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -18.63%E -2.19%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -19.39%E -3.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.91%EV -8.64%E -7.14%K -41.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -10.44%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-18 20:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.04%EV -7.13%E -5.80%K -31.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.88%EV -21.63%E -4.12%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-18 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.09%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.99%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.91%EV -22.38%E -4.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-18 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.09%EV -7.89%E -6.47%K -35.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.99%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.91%EV -22.38%E -4.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-18 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.54%EV -9.40%E -7.83%K -47.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.88%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.58%EV -21.63%E -4.12%K -5.09%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-18 18:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 72.35%EV -10.15%E -8.53%K -53.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.76%EV -23.42%E -2.93%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.88%EV -23.87%E -4.68%K -5.82%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-18 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 72.61%EV -10.91%E -9.25%K -60.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.82%EV -30.60%E -4.22%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -17.90%E -3.25%K -3.98%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-18 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.76%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.59%2.7%2026-08-19 00:15
Smarkets1.18I 84.75%NM 72.56%7.80I 12.82%NM 10.98%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.47%16.8%2026-08-18 20:30

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