The School of Odds
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Abha Club v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 16:00 UTC

Final: Abha Club 0–1 Al-Ettifaq

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abha Club (Local)

Prediction 38.10%2.62fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.38%37.91%38.19%39.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.412.5045.45%41.40%41.49%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 36.35%2.75fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.26%36.48%36.28%38.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.482.482.6542.92%40.40%40.32%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%25.61%25.54%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.483.7731.25%28.76%28.78%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abha Club (Local): 38.10%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 36.35%; Draw: 25.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.77, with an expected value of -3.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.76%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.50%E -2.11%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -4.76%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -4.76%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 13:20
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -5.52%E -2.23%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.64%EV -9.86%E -3.98%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.75%EV -6.29%E -2.55%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.97%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.28%EV -3.65%E -0.968%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.50%E -2.11%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.18%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.50%E -2.11%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.84%EV -7.48%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.38%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -12.77%E -5.32%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 13:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.69%EV -7.81%E -3.23%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.48%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.84%EV -9.78%E -2.77%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 14:21
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.50%E -2.11%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:29
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 14:15
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 14:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -15.66%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.41%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.71%EV -13.49%E -5.67%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -16.94%E -5.21%K -7.53%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.41%EV -8.57%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.71%EV -13.49%E -5.67%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -16.94%E -5.21%K -7.53%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -9.33%E -3.92%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.25%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.46%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 36.77%EV -15.31%E -6.57%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -18.22%E -5.69%K -8.28%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-04 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.29%EV -10.95%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -9.27%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -14.29%E -6.35%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -11.83%E -3.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-04 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.17%EV -16.19%E -7.36%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.21%EV -13.49%E -5.67%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.62%EV -10.55%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-09-04 14:15
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.09%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97%1.4%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.92%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28%1.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.92%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28%1.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.92%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.28%1.4%2026-09-04 14:30