L’École des cotes

Tondela v Rio Ave FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-09 20:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Tondela (Local)

Prévision 44.25%2.26cote équitable
EV -1.31%
Avantage -0.588%
Kelly -1.07%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.99%44.27%44.16%45.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.962.102.102.2351.02%47.69%47.62%44.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Rio Ave FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.03%3.70cote équitable
EV -2.68%
Avantage -0.746%
Kelly -1.03%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.99%27.00%27.09%28.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.473.503.6031.25%28.84%28.57%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.71%3.48cote équitable
EV -2.38%
Avantage -0.699%
Kelly -0.990%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.81%28.73%28.75%29.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.243.253.4034.72%30.82%30.77%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 43.45%EV -1.31%E -0.588%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.45%EV -4.58%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.10%EV -4.39%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-09 20:04
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:10
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 43.96%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -3.50%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.95%EV -4.10%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:00
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-09 17:40
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 43.33%EV -3.52%E -1.62%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.70%EV -7.82%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.97%EV -6.40%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:49
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-09 17:30
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-09 17:39
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.60%EV -3.23%E -0.901%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.69%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 17:42
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.17%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-09 20:08
BetUS2.13I 46.95%NM 43.97%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-09 20:10
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.38%E -0.699%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-09 20:04
Marathon Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -8.69%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-09 20:04
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 20:05
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 20:05
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-09 20:05
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-09 19:33
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-09 19:49
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 20:05
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:49
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:50
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 19:50
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 17:45
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 19:49
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-09 20:09
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-09 18:49
ATG (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.60%EV -8.39%E -4.05%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:24
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 45.60%EV -8.39%E -4.05%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:25
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-09 19:45
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:24
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:24
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Bally Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 19:50
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 17:45
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 17:44
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-09 20:10
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-09 19:55
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-09 20:05
TABtouch2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -9.72%E -4.76%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-09 19:25
BetRivers2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -9.72%E -4.76%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 19:25
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 19:25
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -11.49%E -5.75%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-09 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.11%EV -11.49%E -5.75%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.95%EV -13.50%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.94%EV -17.31%E -6.01%K -9.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-09 20:05
LeoVegas1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -13.26%E -6.77%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.97%1.5%2026-03-09 20:10
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39%2.1%2026-03-09 20:05