La escuela de los momios

Tondela v Rio Ave FC

Inicio: 2026-03-09 20:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tondela (Local)

Predicción 44.25%2.26momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.588%
Kelly -1.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.99%44.27%44.16%45.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.962.102.102.2351.02%47.69%47.62%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rio Ave FC (Visitante)

Predicción 27.03%3.70momio equitativo
EV -2.68%
Ventaja -0.746%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.99%27.00%27.09%28.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.473.503.6031.25%28.84%28.57%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.71%3.48momio equitativo
EV -2.38%
Ventaja -0.699%
Kelly -0.990%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.81%28.73%28.75%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.243.253.4034.72%30.82%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 43.45%EV -1.31%E -0.588%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.45%EV -4.58%E -1.30%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.10%EV -4.39%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-09 20:04
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:10
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.14%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 43.96%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -3.50%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.95%EV -4.10%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-09 20:00
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -2.64%E -1.20%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-09 17:40
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 43.33%EV -3.52%E -1.62%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.70%EV -7.82%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.97%EV -6.40%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:49
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-09 17:30
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-09 17:39
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-09 17:39
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.85%E -2.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-09 20:00
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.60%EV -3.23%E -0.901%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.69%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 17:42
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.17%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-09 20:08
BetUS2.13I 46.95%NM 43.97%EV -5.74%E -2.69%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-09 20:10
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.38%E -0.699%K -0.990%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-09 20:04
Marathon Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -8.69%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-09 20:04
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 20:05
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 20:05
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -6.18%E -2.91%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-09 20:05
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-09 19:33
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-09 19:49
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 20:05
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:49
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:50
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 19:50
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 17:45
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 19:49
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-09 20:10
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-09 20:09
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.06%E -3.36%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-09 18:49
ATG (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.60%EV -8.39%E -4.05%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:24
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 45.60%EV -8.39%E -4.05%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 19:25
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -2.68%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-09 19:45
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:24
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:24
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Bally Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 19:50
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 17:45
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-09 17:44
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-09 20:10
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-09 19:55
NetBet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -9.28%E -4.53%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-09 20:05
TABtouch2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -9.72%E -4.76%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-09 19:25
BetRivers2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -9.72%E -4.76%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -4.04%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.25%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-09 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 19:25
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -10.61%E -5.25%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-09 19:25
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -11.49%E -5.75%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-09 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.11%EV -11.49%E -5.75%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.95%EV -13.50%E -4.22%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.94%EV -17.31%E -6.01%K -9.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-09 20:05
LeoVegas1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -13.26%E -6.77%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-09 19:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.89%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-03-09 20:10
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.97%1.5%2026-03-09 20:10
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39%2.1%2026-03-09 20:05