La escuela de los momios

Sporting Lisbon v Gil Vicente

Inicio: 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 3–0 Gil Vicente

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Predicción 78.98%1.27momio equitativo
EV -1.27%
Ventaja -1.02%
Kelly -5.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.65%78.92%78.98%80.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.141.191.181.2587.72%84.35%84.75%80.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Gil Vicente (Visitante)

Predicción 8.00%12.50momio equitativo
EV +11.96%
Ventaja +0.854%
Kelly +0.920%
Crecimiento +0.110%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.74%8.02%7.95%10.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
9.2511.4911.5014.0010.81%8.70%8.70%7.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 13.02%7.68momio equitativo
EV +10.67%
Ventaja +1.26%
Kelly +1.42%
Crecimiento +0.152%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.97%13.06%13.07%15.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.967.008.5018.18%14.37%14.29%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.70%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -20.03%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +10.67%E +1.26%K +1.42%G +0.152%7.2%2026-05-16 19:20
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 77.94%EV -1.27%E -1.02%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.66I 10.35%NM 10.09%EV -22.75%E -2.35%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.14I 12.29%NM 11.97%EV +5.98%E +0.735%K +0.838%G +0.050%2.6%2026-05-16 19:20
Tipico (DE)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +4.16%E +0.520%K +0.594%G +0.025%7.0%2026-05-16 19:05
FanDuel1.15I 86.96%NM 79.79%EV -9.17%E -7.97%K -61.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -16.03%E -1.53%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV +4.16%E +0.520%K +0.594%G +0.025%9.0%2026-05-16 19:20
Winamax (DE)1.16I 86.21%NM 79.97%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV +0.904%E +0.117%K +0.134%G +0.001%7.8%2026-05-16 19:20
Pinnacle1.18I 84.75%NM 80.71%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%13.69I 7.30%NM 6.96%EV +9.48%E +0.693%K +0.747%G +0.071%7.72I 12.95%NM 12.34%EV +0.514%E +0.067%K +0.076%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 19:25
DraftKings1.19I 84.03%NM 79.50%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -2.35%E -0.313%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +11.96%E +0.854%K +0.920%G +0.110%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -2.35%E -0.313%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 19:20
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.35%E -0.313%K -0.362%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:20
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.36%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -2.35%E -0.313%K -0.362%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:20
LowVig.ag1.19I 84.03%NM 78.80%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%EV -3.65%E -0.494%K -0.571%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Marathon Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.04%EV +5.96%E +0.450%K +0.487%G +0.029%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.60%EV -3.65%E -0.494%K -0.571%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:25
Coolbet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.88%EV -4.43%E -3.66%K -21.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 19:25
Bovada1.17I 85.47%NM 79.91%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +3.96%E +0.305%K +0.330%G +0.013%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 19:24
BetUS1.17I 85.47%NM 79.91%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +3.96%E +0.305%K +0.330%G +0.013%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 19:25
Betclic (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.17%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.95%EV -6.03%E -0.513%K -0.561%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 19:19
Everygame1.16I 86.21%NM 79.58%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.73%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 19:20
Winamax (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 79.17%EV -9.17%E -7.97%K -61.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:20
NetBet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 79.59%EV -9.96%E -8.74%K -71.14%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.89%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.52%EV -5.61%E -0.773%K -0.897%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 19:20
BetOnline.ag1.20I 83.33%NM 77.72%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -20.03%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.95%EV -6.26%E -0.869%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:05
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 76.71%EV -1.27%E -1.02%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.59%EV -20.03%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 18:41
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.71%EV -1.27%E -1.02%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.59%EV -20.03%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 18:41
Unibet (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betr (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.53%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 19:25
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 17:45
William Hill1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 17:44
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 17:45
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 17:45
Bet Right1.19I 84.03%NM 78.24%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 19:25
PointsBet (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.24%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 19:20
Betway1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -8.86%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:20
Svenska Spel1.20I 83.33%NM 78.51%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -0.036%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 17:15
ATG (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.51%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -0.036%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 17:15
Casumo1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 11:00
Grosvenor1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 11:00
betPARX1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 11:00
Bally Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 11:00
BetMGM1.22I 81.97%NM 76.58%EV -3.64%E -2.98%K -16.55%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.58%EV -22.03%E -2.26%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -12.12%E -1.79%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 19:05
Neds1.24I 80.65%NM 75.65%EV -2.06%E -1.66%K -8.59%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.03%E -2.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.21%EV -14.07%E -2.13%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.65%EV -2.06%E -1.66%K -8.59%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.14%EV -26.03%E -2.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.21%EV -14.07%E -2.13%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:41
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 19:25
BetRivers1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:55
Unibet (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:53
TABtouch1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:55
Unibet1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:53
Unibet (NL)1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:53
LeoVegas (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 77.87%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.99%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 11:00
LiveScore Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 77.87%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.99%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 11:00
BoyleSports1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 19:20
betfred_uk1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:44
Bet Victor1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:19
Unibet (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 77.25%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.96%EV -20.03%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -15.37%E -2.36%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-16 19:20
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 78.06%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%EV -0.036%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -16.67%E -2.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:11
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 78.06%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%EV -0.036%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -16.67%E -2.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Virgin Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 77.85%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -16.67%E -2.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 18:55
PMU (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 77.85%EV -7.59%E -6.49%K -44.65%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -8.03%E -0.699%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -16.67%E -2.61%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 18:53
LeoVegas1.16I 86.21%NM 77.46%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -12.03%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -18.63%E -2.98%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 18:52
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 76.79%EV -9.96%E -8.74%K -71.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.29%EV -4.03%E -0.336%K -0.367%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.92%EV -28.39%E -5.16%K -6.31%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-16 17:18
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.21I 82.64%NM 82.30%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.64%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%0.4%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.21I 82.64%NM 82.09%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%0.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.21I 82.64%NM 82.09%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.62%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%0.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 81.90%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.83%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.26%0.9%2026-05-16 19:25
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 81.90%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.84%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.26%0.9%2026-05-16 19:25
Kalshi1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78%2.0%2026-05-16 17:35