L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
+ Nouveau modèleTous les modèles

Sporting Lisbon v Arouca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-19 19:32 UTC

Score final : Sporting Lisbon 2–2 Arouca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prévision 81.15%1.23cote équitable
EV -4.24%
Avantage -3.59%
Kelly -23.57%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.18

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
78.90%81.01%81.30%84.13%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.111.151.161.1890.09%86.75%86.21%84.75%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Arouca (Visiteur)

Prévision 6.44%15.54cote équitable
EV +15.86%
Avantage +0.881%
Kelly +0.933%
Croissance +0.148%

avec la cote maximale 18.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
5.14%6.51%6.32%8.16%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
11.0014.1014.0018.009.09%7.09%7.14%5.56%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 12.41%8.06cote équitable
EV +11.71%
Avantage +1.30%
Kelly +1.46%
Croissance +0.171%

avec la cote maximale 9.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.38%12.48%12.39%15.16%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
6.107.367.509.0016.39%13.59%13.33%11.11%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Sporting Lisbon (Local) : 81.15% ; Arouca (Visiteur) : 6.44% ; Match nul : 12.41%. Pour Arouca (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 15.54. 9 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 18.00, soit une espérance positive de +15.86%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +9.43%E +0.555%K +0.589%G +0.056%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +11.71%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171%7.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.72%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV +5.50%E +0.648%K +0.734%G +0.040%6.4%2026-09-19 19:09
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.08%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%17.30I 5.78%NM 5.57%EV +11.36%E +0.657%K +0.697%G +0.079%8.49I 11.78%NM 11.35%EV +5.38%E +0.634%K +0.718%G +0.039%3.8%2026-09-19 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.75%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.40%EV +1.78%E +0.217%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.9%2026-09-19 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 19:04
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.79%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 19:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.79%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 19:24
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 18:58
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.30%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +15.86%E +0.881%K +0.933%G +0.148%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:29
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +9.43%E +0.555%K +0.589%G +0.056%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 19:29
BetUS🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.29%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%13.60I 7.35%NM 6.87%EV -12.46%E -0.916%K -0.989%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.83%EV -1.94%E -0.246%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 19:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.86%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.33%EV -5.06%E -0.343%K -0.368%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.81%EV -1.94%E -0.246%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.82%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.93%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -3.81%E -0.491%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 17:54
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:02
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 19:27
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.93%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -25.98%E -2.26%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.45%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -29.19%E -2.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.38%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-19 19:20
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 19:29
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 19:00
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 19:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 17:54
betano_uk🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 19:14
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 19:13
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 16:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
TABtouch🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.01%EV -9.11%E -8.13%K -75.92%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%EV -22.76%E -1.90%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.61%EV -19.32%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 19:05
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.90%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -22.42%E -3.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 19:29
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -24.29%E -3.98%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:19
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -24.29%E -3.98%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.57%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.09%0.2%2026-09-19 19:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.91%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.57%0.7%2026-09-19 19:29
Kalshi◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.96%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.92%0.7%2026-09-19 19:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.72%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%0.9%2026-09-19 19:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.52%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99%1.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.63%21.98I 4.55%NM 4.47%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.91%1.9%2026-09-19 19:29