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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Sporting Lisbon v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-09-19 19:32 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 2–2 Arouca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Predicción 81.15%1.23momio equitativo
EV -4.24%
Ventaja -3.59%
Kelly -23.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.90%81.01%81.30%84.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.111.151.161.1890.09%86.75%86.21%84.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 6.44%15.54momio equitativo
EV +15.86%
Ventaja +0.881%
Kelly +0.933%
Crecimiento +0.148%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 18.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.14%6.51%6.32%8.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
11.0014.1014.0018.009.09%7.09%7.14%5.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 12.41%8.06momio equitativo
EV +11.71%
Ventaja +1.30%
Kelly +1.46%
Crecimiento +0.171%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.38%12.48%12.39%15.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.107.367.509.0016.39%13.59%13.33%11.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 81.15%; Arouca (Visitante): 6.44%; Empate: 12.41%. Para Arouca (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 15.54. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 18.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +15.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +9.43%E +0.555%K +0.589%G +0.056%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +11.71%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171%7.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.72%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV +5.50%E +0.648%K +0.734%G +0.040%6.4%2026-09-19 19:09
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.08%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%17.30I 5.78%NM 5.57%EV +11.36%E +0.657%K +0.697%G +0.079%8.49I 11.78%NM 11.35%EV +5.38%E +0.634%K +0.718%G +0.039%3.8%2026-09-19 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.75%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.40%EV +1.78%E +0.217%K +0.247%G +0.004%6.9%2026-09-19 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 19:04
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.79%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 19:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.79%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 19:24
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 18:58
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.30%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +15.86%E +0.881%K +0.933%G +0.148%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:29
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.05%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +9.43%E +0.555%K +0.589%G +0.056%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -0.702%E -0.088%K -0.100%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 19:29
BetUS🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.29%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%13.60I 7.35%NM 6.87%EV -12.46%E -0.916%K -0.989%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.83%EV -1.94%E -0.246%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 19:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.86%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.33%EV -5.06%E -0.343%K -0.368%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.81%EV -1.94%E -0.246%K -0.282%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.82%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.93%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -3.81%E -0.491%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 17:54
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:02
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 19:27
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 14:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 19:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 18:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.93%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -25.98%E -2.26%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 19:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -9.92%E -8.94%K -90.20%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -6.91%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.45%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -29.19%E -2.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.38%EV -10.01%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-19 19:20
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 19:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 19:29
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.09%EV -5.86%E -5.06%K -36.66%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -9.88%E -0.706%K -0.760%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 19:00
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 19:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-19 17:54
betano_uk🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 19:14
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.30%E -7.34%K -63.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-19 19:13
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -16.32%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 16:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
TABtouch🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.51%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -19.54%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -16.22%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 14:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.01%EV -9.11%E -8.13%K -75.92%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%EV -22.76%E -1.90%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.61%EV -19.32%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 19:05
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.90%EV -4.24%E -3.59%K -23.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -3.45%E -0.230%K -0.246%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -22.42%E -3.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 19:29
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -24.29%E -3.98%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:19
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.06%EV -5.05%E -4.32%K -29.73%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV +2.99%E +0.187%K +0.199%G +0.006%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -24.29%E -3.98%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 19:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.57%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.09%0.2%2026-09-19 19:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.91%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.57%0.7%2026-09-19 19:29
Kalshi◎1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.96%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.92%0.7%2026-09-19 19:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.72%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%0.9%2026-09-19 19:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.52%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99%1.1%2026-09-19 19:29
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.63%21.98I 4.55%NM 4.47%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.91%1.9%2026-09-19 19:29