Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santa Clara v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santa Clara (Local)

Prediction 24.72%4.05fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +0.911%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%24.68%24.70%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.853.804.2028.57%25.98%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 47.29%2.11fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.92%47.26%47.32%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.961.952.0554.64%51.13%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.825%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.17%28.06%27.98%29.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.303.4734.72%30.65%30.30%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santa Clara (Local): 24.72%; Braga (Visit): 47.29%; Draw: 27.99%. For Santa Clara (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 11:15
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:15
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:15
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:15
Bally Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:15
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -8.74%E -4.53%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 11:15
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV +3.83%E +0.911%K +1.20%G +0.046%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -8.74%E -4.53%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 11:14
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.13%EV -9.21%E -4.80%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 11:13
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.13%EV -9.21%E -4.80%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.13%EV -9.21%E -4.80%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -11.82%E -3.75%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:15
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 11:14
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.29%EV -10.63%E -5.62%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-20 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV +1.36%E +0.331%K +0.437%G +0.006%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -11.10%E -5.91%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -13.22%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 11:15
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -1.12%E -0.279%K -0.372%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 18:19
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -1.12%E -0.279%K -0.372%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 21:39
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -1.12%E -0.279%K -0.372%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.06%EV -11.58%E -6.19%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -14.62%E -4.79%K -7.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-20 11:15
1xBet🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.74%EV -3.09%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.31%EV -3.06%E -1.49%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.95%EV -2.86%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.65%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 20:05
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 18:19
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.16%E -5.35%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:25
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:35
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:40
Bet Right🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.27%EV -6.85%E -3.48%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 21:25
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 19:00
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 19:00
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 24.69%EV -6.55%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.37%EV -6.85%E -3.48%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -6.50%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 20:09
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.99%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 21:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:13
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 21:24
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 18:20
GTbets🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.21%EV -7.54%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.17%EV -2.86%E -0.825%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 21:40
Pinnacle🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.71%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.54%EV -3.14%E -0.909%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 20:15
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 18:20
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 20:10
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -7.79%E -4.00%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 20:13
Bovada🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -4.48%E -2.22%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:47
BetUS🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 21:44
PlayUp🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.47%EV -6.37%E -3.22%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 20:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.24%EV -9.21%E -4.80%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.91%EV -9.02%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 21:29
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 20:59
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 18:19
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -9.68%E -5.07%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -13.47%E -7.36%K -16.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.64%EV -19.38%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-23 18:38
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -12.24%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.11%EV -4.01%E -1.98%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -12.24%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.11%EV -4.01%E -1.98%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -12.24%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -12.24%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%EV -8.27%E -4.26%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 20:10
Everygame🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.43%E -2.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-24 03:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.21%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.31%6.1%2026-04-24 03:40
Smarkets3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%9.6%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 24.56%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.16%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.29%14.7%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.55I 28.17%NM 24.56%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.16%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.29%14.7%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 15.90%2.00I 50.00%NM 28.22%1.01I 99.01%NM 55.88%77.2%2026-04-24 03:40