The School of Odds
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Santa Clara v Braga

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santa Clara (Local)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.69%24.02%24.02%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.793.803.9529.85%26.40%26.32%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd
EV -6.65%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -6.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.92%47.15%47.15%47.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.931.921.9853.19%51.73%52.08%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.83%3.47fair odd
EV -6.29%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.31%28.83%28.83%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.103.2533.33%31.68%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Santa Clara (Local): 24.02%; Braga (Visit): 47.15%; Draw: 28.83%. For Santa Clara (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -5.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -6.65%E -3.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:20
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:21
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:20
Bally Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:21
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:20
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.12%E -3.61%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -6.29%E -1.93%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:19
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.73%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.07%EV -9.48%E -4.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 17:20
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.73%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.07%EV -9.48%E -4.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 17:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.73%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.07%EV -9.48%E -4.94%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 17:20
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.95%E -5.21%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.95%E -5.21%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 17:21
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -9.95%E -5.21%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-13 17:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.31%EV -10.89%E -5.76%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 24.26%EV -11.61%E -3.16%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -10.89%E -5.76%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.52%EV -9.75%E -3.11%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 17:17
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.95%EV -15.94%E -4.55%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.95%EV -10.42%E -5.48%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.10%EV -13.50%E -4.50%K -6.75%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-13 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -17.14%E -4.97%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.22%EV -10.42%E -5.48%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -10.61%E -3.42%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-13 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.77%EV -19.54%E -5.83%K -8.31%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.92%EV -11.36%E -6.04%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.31%EV -12.06%E -3.95%K -5.88%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 25.72%1.69I 59.17%NM 44.74%2.56I 39.06%NM 29.54%32.2%2026-09-13 19:31