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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Santa Clara v Braga

Inicio: 2026-09-20 17:00 UTC

Final: Santa Clara 0–0 Braga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Santa Clara (Local)

Predicción 26.95%3.71momio equitativo
EV -0.285%
Ventaja -0.077%
Kelly -0.106%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.28%26.99%26.93%28.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.453.423.7031.75%29.02%29.20%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Braga (Visitante)

Predicción 42.93%2.33momio equitativo
EV -3.41%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -2.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.88%42.93%42.96%44.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.152.152.2548.78%46.55%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.12%3.32momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.553%
Kelly -0.798%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.86%30.08%30.10%30.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.093.103.2633.33%32.34%32.26%30.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Santa Clara (Local): 26.95%; Braga (Visitante): 42.93%; Empate: 30.12%. Para Santa Clara (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.71. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.70, con un valor esperado de -0.285%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -0.285%E -0.077%K -0.106%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:54
Pinnacle🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.47%EV -1.36%E -0.373%K -0.513%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.44%EV -4.27%E -1.91%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -3.01%E -0.934%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-20 16:59
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.98%E -0.828%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 16:54
GTbets🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 26.74%EV -4.06%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.07%EV -7.27%E -3.37%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.20%EV -1.80%E -0.553%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-14 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.70%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.70%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:44
BetUS🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.70%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:44
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.35%EV -6.84%E -3.15%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.15%EV -6.02%E -1.93%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 16:53
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Bally Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
betPARX🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.70%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 16:19
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 16:29
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 16:54
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:54
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:59
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:34
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.73%EV -6.21%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.26%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 16:54
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -3.41%E -1.52%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 14:29
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 14:29
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -3.41%E -1.52%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.41%E -1.52%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 16:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 16:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:29
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 16:29
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 16:34
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 16:59
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 16:54
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 01:59
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 16:59
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 16:58
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -10.71%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:14
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -10.71%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -10.71%E -5.15%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 16:14
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 16:29
NetBet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 16:54
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.33%EV -11.14%E -5.38%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.33%EV -11.14%E -5.38%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.33%EV -11.14%E -5.38%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -9.72%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.45%EV -11.57%E -5.62%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 16:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.56%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 16:20
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -12.00%E -5.85%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:34
Betclic (FR)🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 27.33%EV -11.87%E -3.63%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.17%EV -11.14%E -5.38%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.50%EV -8.73%E -2.88%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:33
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.70%E -3.58%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 16:24
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -15.11%E -4.80%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -9.85%E -4.69%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 16:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.5%2026-09-20 16:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-09-20 16:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-09-20 16:54
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%0.9%2026-09-20 16:54
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.0%2026-09-20 16:20
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.60%2.1%2026-09-20 16:54