Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.10
assuming max odds 1.94
assuming max odds 3.92
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 23.99%; Famalicão (Visit): 50.39%; Draw: 25.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.426%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.87I 25.84%NM 25.11%EV -7.16%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.10%EV -2.24%E -1.15%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.79%EV +0.426%E +0.109%K +0.146%G +0.001% | 2.9% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.43%EV -5.00%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.38%EV -3.25%E -1.69%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.19%EV -1.62%E -0.423%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -6.27%E -3.37%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -6.27%E -3.37%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -5.24%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.65%E -0.697%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 19:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.92%EV -4.52%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -5.77%E -3.08%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.18%EV -3.16%E -0.836%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.27%EV -6.92%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.62%EV -6.27%E -3.37%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 19:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -7.64%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -10.30%E -5.79%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -3.93%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-01 20:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -5.77%E -3.08%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.64%E -1.98%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.21%EV -2.84%E -0.702%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.38%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 20:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -11.24%E -3.04%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 20:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -11.24%E -3.04%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 20:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.21%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 20:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.34%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -6.49%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-01 20:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.15%EV -7.40%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.11%EV -6.27%E -3.37%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -7.26%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -4.26%E -2.24%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-27 15:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -5.77%E -3.08%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 20:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 19:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -8.29%E -4.55%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -1.64%E -0.401%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 20:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -8.79%E -4.86%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 19:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -8.79%E -4.86%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -8.79%E -4.86%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-01 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -13.64%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.77%E -2.16%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -5.24%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -10.81%E -6.11%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.04%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.79%E -4.86%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -9.05%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -5.26%E -2.80%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-25 21:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -5.24%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -5.77%E -3.08%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-27 15:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 20:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.04%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 20:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -5.77%E -3.08%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-01 20:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.84%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.78%E -4.25%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-01 20:13 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.17%EV -11.31%E -6.43%K -14.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.33%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-01 19:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -6.44%E -1.65%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.42%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -11.62%E -3.37%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-01 20:10 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -5.24%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.90%E -3.79%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-01 20:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -10.04%E -2.68%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -12.82%E -7.41%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -20.58%E -6.64%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-03-01 19:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.41% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 1.3% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.22% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.61% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |