Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.42%41.19%41.16%42.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.3847.62%43.81%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 29.66%3.37fair odd
EV +0.848%
Edge +0.249%
Kelly +0.353%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.72%29.65%29.71%31.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.123.103.4034.72%32.08%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.14%3.43fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.887%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.04%29.16%29.13%30.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.183.203.3335.71%31.45%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 41.20%; CF Estrela (Visit): 29.66%; Draw: 29.14%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.848%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.55%EV -4.01%E -1.72%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.47%EV +0.848%E +0.249%K +0.353%G +0.003%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -5.87%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 17:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV +0.848%E +0.249%K +0.353%G +0.003%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 17:39
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.11%EV -1.23%E -0.369%K -0.527%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.64%EV -4.70%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.85%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.17%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.99%EV -3.24%E -0.977%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.85%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.17%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.99%EV -3.24%E -0.977%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 17:40
Bovada🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.51%EV -6.90%E -3.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.07%EV -9.07%E -2.91%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 17:55
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.51%EV -6.90%E -3.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.07%EV -9.07%E -2.91%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:45
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -2.12%E -0.642%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:40
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.43%E -5.32%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-15 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.54%EV -7.91%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 17:55
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:35
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.08%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.39%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.03%EV -5.97%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -2.95%E -0.887%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 17:25
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -6.57%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 17:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -6.57%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.57%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 17:45
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -6.57%E -2.08%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 17:50
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -7.46%E -2.39%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -9.07%E -2.91%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-15 17:35
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.90%EV -4.84%E -2.09%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 09:34
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 17:35
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 17:35
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.67%EV -10.61%E -4.89%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-15 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -9.53%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 17:30
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -9.53%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -1.95%E -0.821%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 09:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -1.95%E -0.821%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 09:20
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:20
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:20
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:20
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:19
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:20
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 09:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 17:25
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -13.49%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -18.40%E -6.57%K -10.22%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-15 17:35
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -4.01%E -1.72%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -4.01%E -1.72%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -4.01%E -1.72%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.64%EV -4.43%E -1.91%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 09:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.64%EV -4.43%E -1.91%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 09:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -12.50%E -4.24%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -5.28%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -13.98%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 17:05
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.57%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.33%EV -14.58%E -5.06%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -9.66%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-15 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-03-15 17:55
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-03-15 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05%0.8%2026-03-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.93%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.05%0.8%2026-03-15 17:55
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.46%1.9%2026-03-15 17:40
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.24%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.0%2026-03-15 17:50