La escuela de los momios

Rio Ave FC v Alverca

Inicio: 2026-04-04 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Predicción 34.08%2.93momio equitativo
EV -1.17%
Ventaja -0.405%
Kelly -0.618%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.41%34.15%34.04%36.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.702.702.9040.00%37.08%37.04%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alverca (Visitante)

Predicción 36.94%2.71momio equitativo
EV -2.10%
Ventaja -0.793%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.26%36.83%36.94%37.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.552.552.6541.67%39.21%39.22%37.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.98%3.45momio equitativo
EV -1.47%
Ventaja -0.433%
Kelly -0.613%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.01%29.02%29.02%30.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.223.253.4035.71%31.06%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.75%EV -8.01%E -3.22%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -8.72%E -2.77%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 11:20
1xBet2.87I 34.84%NM 33.81%EV -2.20%E -0.765%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.04%EV -3.21%E -1.22%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 16:50
Pinnacle2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -2.54%E -0.887%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.18%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.03%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 16:54
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 16:54
BetOnline.ag2.84I 35.21%NM 34.21%EV -3.22%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.80%EV -2.47%E -0.936%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.00%EV -2.92%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 16:55
LowVig.ag2.84I 35.21%NM 34.21%EV -3.22%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.80%EV -2.47%E -0.936%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.00%EV -2.92%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 16:55
GTbets2.84I 35.21%NM 33.37%EV -3.22%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.02%EV -5.43%E -2.12%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 10:00
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Betclic (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.85%EV -8.75%E -3.54%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 16:43
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 14:15
Marathon Bet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.54%EV -5.26%E -1.89%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.86%EV -6.53%E -2.58%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -8.72%E -2.77%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:54
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -1.47%E -0.433%K -0.613%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 16:39
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 16:30
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:40
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 16:39
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 16:54
Bet Victor2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.37%EV -9.49%E -3.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.34%EV -9.59%E -3.07%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-04 16:55
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -7.31%E -2.69%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -6.90%E -2.74%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -7.31%E -2.69%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -6.90%E -2.74%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:50
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -2.92%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 16:39
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -2.10%E -0.793%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 16:38
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:20
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:40
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -3.21%E -1.22%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 16:39
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -3.21%E -1.22%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 16:40
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 16:39
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 16:40
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 16:50
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 16:40
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 16:39
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 16:40
NetBet (FR)2.67I 37.45%NM 33.89%EV -9.01%E -3.38%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.49%E -3.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 16:39
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 16:40
Winamax (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.49%E -3.87%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 16:19
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -10.38%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.95%EV -10.38%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.11%EV -11.34%E -4.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.95%EV -18.86%E -6.74%K -10.48%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-04 16:50
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -10.72%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.64%E -3.06%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 16:01
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.10%E -0.793%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 16:10
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.10%E -0.793%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 16:09
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -2.84%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 16:09
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -2.84%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -2.84%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.61%EV -2.84%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:54
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:54
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 16:54
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -2.84%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 16:09
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.47%EV -3.95%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -5.82%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:10
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 16:54
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.27%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 16:54
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -14.81%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -5.79%E -2.27%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.72%E -2.77%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 16:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-04-04 16:55
Matchbook2.98I 33.56%NM 33.32%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-04-04 16:54
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.30%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-04-04 16:45
Smarkets2.94I 34.01%NM 33.28%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.65%2.2%2026-04-04 16:55