Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:30 UTC

Final: Nacional 2–0 Estoril

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -0.430%
Edge -0.139%
Kelly -0.205%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%32.24%32.14%35.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.832.853.1039.22%35.34%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 39.24%2.55fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.759%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.37%39.11%39.16%40.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.382.5044.44%41.93%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.64%3.49fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.773%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%28.65%28.71%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.253.4032.26%30.72%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 32.12%; Estoril (Visit): 39.24%; Draw: 28.64%. For Nacional (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.430%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -0.430%E -0.139%K -0.205%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:14
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV -1.07%E -0.348%K -0.515%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.84%EV -4.64%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.73%EV -3.49%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 14:25
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetUS🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:08
Marathon Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:09
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 14:19
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -3.86%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.92%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.03%EV -3.77%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.55%EV -10.92%E -4.81%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.96%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.16%EV -9.10%E -3.22%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.57%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.27%EV -7.78%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 14:15
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:05
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 14:19
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:09
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -18.10%E -7.10%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -1.90%E -0.759%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-16 14:25
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-16 14:20