默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional v Estoril

开赛时间: 2026-08-16 14:30 UTC

最终结果: Nacional 2–0 Estoril

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

56 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional (主队)

预测 32.12%3.11公平赔率
EV -0.430%
优势 -0.139%
Kelly -0.205%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.10

博彩公司预测分布
30.13%32.24%32.14%35.66%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.552.832.853.1039.22%35.34%35.09%32.26%最小值均值中位数最大值

Estoril (客队)

预测 39.24%2.55公平赔率
EV -1.90%
优势 -0.759%
Kelly -1.26%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.50

博彩公司预测分布
36.37%39.11%39.16%40.07%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.252.392.382.5044.44%41.93%42.02%40.00%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 28.64%3.49公平赔率
EV -2.63%
优势 -0.773%
Kelly -1.09%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.40

博彩公司预测分布
27.68%28.65%28.71%30.13%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.103.263.253.4032.26%30.72%30.77%29.41%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Nacional (主队):32.12%;Estoril (客队):39.24%;平局:28.64%。 对于“Nacional (主队)”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.11。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率:最佳赔率为3.10,期望值为-0.430%,未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (56 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -0.430%E -0.139%K -0.205%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:14
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV -1.07%E -0.348%K -0.515%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.84%EV -4.64%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.73%EV -3.49%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 14:25
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetUS🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:08
Marathon Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:09
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 14:19
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -3.86%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.92%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.03%EV -3.77%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.55%EV -10.92%E -4.81%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.96%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.16%EV -9.10%E -3.22%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.57%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.27%EV -7.78%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 14:15
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:05
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 14:19
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:09
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -18.10%E -7.10%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -1.90%E -0.759%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:39
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-16 14:25
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-16 14:20