Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nacional v Estoril

Início: 2026-08-16 14:30 UTC

Final: Nacional 2–0 Estoril

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nacional (Local)

Previsão 32.12%3.11odd justa
EV -0.430%
Vantagem -0.139%
Kelly -0.205%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.13%32.24%32.14%35.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.552.832.853.1039.22%35.34%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Estoril (Visitante)

Previsão 39.24%2.55odd justa
EV -1.90%
Vantagem -0.759%
Kelly -1.26%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.37%39.11%39.16%40.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.392.382.5044.44%41.93%42.02%40.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.64%3.49odd justa
EV -2.63%
Vantagem -0.773%
Kelly -1.09%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.68%28.65%28.71%30.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.263.253.4032.26%30.72%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nacional (Local): 32.12%; Estoril (Visitante): 39.24%; Empate: 28.64%. Para Nacional (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.11. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.10, com valor esperado de -0.430%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -0.430%E -0.139%K -0.205%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:14
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV -1.07%E -0.348%K -0.515%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.84%EV -4.64%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.73%EV -3.49%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 14:25
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.64%E -1.21%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
BetUS🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.87%EV -4.28%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.92%EV -4.25%E -1.74%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:14
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:08
Marathon Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -9.79%E -3.11%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.00%E -2.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:09
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 14:19
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.50%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -3.86%E -1.58%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.63%E -0.773%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.92%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.03%EV -3.77%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 14:05
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 14:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.55%EV -10.92%E -4.81%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.96%EV -11.22%E -3.62%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.16%EV -9.10%E -3.22%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.57%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.27%EV -7.78%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 14:15
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 14:05
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -10.07%E -3.59%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.71%E -5.20%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 14:19
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -2.68%E -1.08%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -4.06%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.49%E -1.66%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -7.78%E -3.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:09
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -5.82%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -15.53%E -5.90%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.35%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 14:24
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -18.10%E -7.10%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -1.90%E -0.759%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.92%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-16 14:25
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-08-16 14:25
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-16 14:20