L’École des cotes

Moreirense FC v Nacional

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prévision 37.56%2.66cote équitable
EV -2.33%
Avantage -0.898%
Kelly -1.46%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.11%37.71%37.52%39.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.282.452.452.6043.86%40.87%40.82%38.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Nacional (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.39%3.09cote équitable
EV +2.03%
Avantage +0.644%
Kelly +0.943%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 3.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.65%32.31%32.34%33.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.932.903.1538.02%34.13%34.48%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.05%3.33cote équitable
EV -0.246%
Avantage -0.074%
Kelly -0.106%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.32

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.68%29.98%30.14%30.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.093.053.3235.71%32.37%32.79%30.12%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -10.60%E -4.45%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 14:39
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -10.60%E -4.45%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 14:39
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:40
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:40
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:39
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:39
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:39
Bally Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV +2.03%E +0.644%K +0.943%G +0.019%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 14:40
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -12.48%E -5.35%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV +0.408%E +0.132%K +0.194%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 14:40
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -12.48%E -5.35%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV +0.408%E +0.132%K +0.194%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 14:40
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -12.48%E -5.35%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV +0.408%E +0.132%K +0.194%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 14:39
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -12.85%E -5.54%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV +0.408%E +0.132%K +0.194%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -12.85%E -5.54%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV +0.408%E +0.132%K +0.194%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 14:40
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -13.60%E -5.91%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -1.21%E -0.397%K -0.591%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 14:40
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -14.35%E -6.30%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -1.21%E -0.397%K -0.591%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -11.36%E -3.85%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 14:39
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.91%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.57%EV -2.18%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.52%EV -2.95%E -0.913%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 14:52
Pinnacle2.58I 38.76%NM 37.50%EV -3.09%E -1.20%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.36%EV -3.15%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.14%EV -3.55%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 15:20
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:45
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 14:43
Marathon Bet2.49I 40.16%NM 37.47%EV -6.47%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -5.42%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 15:24
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -2.33%E -0.898%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -0.246%E -0.074%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 15:14
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -2.33%E -0.898%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -0.246%E -0.074%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 15:20
1xBet2.59I 38.61%NM 37.41%EV -2.71%E -1.05%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.18%EV -0.246%E -0.074%K -0.106%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:24
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -2.35%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 15:09
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.21%E -1.65%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.70%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -5.35%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 14:54
BetUS2.51I 39.84%NM 37.45%EV -5.72%E -2.28%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.13%EV -6.25%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 15:19
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:20
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:19
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:15
Parions Sport (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 15:09
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 14:44
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -5.34%E -2.12%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 15:09
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.02%EV -5.34%E -2.12%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 15:09
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 14:44
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 15:19
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 15:09
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 15:09
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 15:09
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 15:09
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.21%EV -7.04%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 15:19
GTbets2.54I 39.37%NM 37.14%EV -4.59%E -1.81%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.76%EV -4.75%E -1.50%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 15:09
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.35%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 15:15
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 15:09
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -2.33%E -0.898%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:44
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 14:45
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -2.35%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:20
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -2.35%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:19
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 15:20
NetBet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 14:53
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -9.31%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-07 15:19
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.09%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -10.93%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 14:44
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.97%E -3.25%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -10.93%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -6.86%E -2.21%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 15:20
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.93%E -3.97%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-07 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.11%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.95%EV -14.81%E -5.63%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.95%EV -15.87%E -5.67%K -8.82%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-07 14:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.64I 37.88%NM 37.71%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-03-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.56%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-03-07 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.3%2026-03-07 15:24
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-03-07 14:44
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.00%2.6%2026-03-07 15:25