The School of Odds

Moreirense FC v Braga

2026-08-09 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 18.24%5.48fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -0.803%
Kelly -0.992%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.90%18.24%18.27%20.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.965.005.2523.81%20.17%20.00%19.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 57.49%1.74fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -5.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.92%57.33%57.72%58.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.501.611.621.6766.67%62.25%61.73%59.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.731%
Kelly -0.974%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%24.43%24.02%25.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.804.0028.57%26.65%26.32%25.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics5.25I 19.05%NM 18.33%EV -4.22%E -0.803%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.62%EV -4.00%E -2.39%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 11:00
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -4.22%E -0.803%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-27 10:55
SportsBet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -4.22%E -0.803%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 11:20
Betr (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -4.22%E -0.803%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 10:55
FanDuel5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.13%E -0.986%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-27 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-27 10:49
Bet Right5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.98%EV -6.30%E -3.86%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-27 10:55
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 10:50
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 11:25
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 11:24
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 11:25
BoyleSports5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -8.78%E -1.76%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.02%E -5.01%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-27 11:20
Betclic (FR)4.95I 20.20%NM 18.33%EV -9.69%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.79%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-27 10:14
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.34%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-27 11:20
Unibet (FR)4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%EV -14.25%E -3.03%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.97%EV -11.47%E -7.45%K -21.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-27 10:15
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -17.90%E -3.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.87%EV -11.47%E -7.45%K -21.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.67%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-27 10:15
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.00%EV -23.37%E -5.56%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.00%EV -13.77%E -9.18%K -27.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.00%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-27 10:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.60%16.2%2026-07-27 10:20