Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 19:30 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 2–2 Braga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 15.56%6.43fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.294%
Kelly +0.347%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.25%15.62%15.54%17.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.806.006.5520.00%17.24%16.67%15.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 60.83%1.64fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.85%60.75%60.91%62.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.6068.97%65.03%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.61%4.24fair odd
EV -0.845%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.264%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.22%23.63%23.55%25.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.883.904.2027.40%25.78%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 15.56%; Braga (Visit): 60.83%; Draw: 23.61%. For Moreirense FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.43. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯6.55I 15.27%NM 14.65%EV +1.93%E +0.294%K +0.347%G +0.007%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.90%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.46%EV -3.44%E -0.841%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.81%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 18:45
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 19:23
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -0.407%E -0.064%K -0.075%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.20%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.84%EV -4.50%E -2.86%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.04%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.45%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:13
BetUS🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.04%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.45%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:15
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:54
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -8.15%E -5.39%K -15.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -5.85%E -0.968%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 18:45
GTbets🎯6.02I 16.61%NM 15.59%EV -6.32%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.88%EV -7.22%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 18:50
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.21%E -0.782%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 18:50
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:25
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -0.845%E -0.201%K -0.264%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 19:20
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:50
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:50
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:20
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.47%E -3.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 18:49
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 18:45
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.66%EV -10.58%E -7.20%K -22.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 19:20
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -8.19%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.43%EV -8.19%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.52%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 19:02
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.47%EV -10.52%E -1.83%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.56%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.55%EV -11.30%E -1.98%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.13%EV -11.80%E -8.14%K -26.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.88%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.88%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 18:50
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -11.47%E -3.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 17:59
Casumo🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
betPARX🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:19
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -4.50%E -2.86%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.82%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.48%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.74%EV -22.19%E -4.44%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.30%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-08-09 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:10
Matchbook7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:25
Kalshi6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%2.1%2026-08-09 19:10

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