Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Moreirense FC v Braga

Início: 2026-08-09 19:30 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 2–2 Braga

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Previsão 15.56%6.43odd justa
EV +1.93%
Vantagem +0.294%
Kelly +0.347%
Crescimento +0.007%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.25%15.62%15.54%17.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.806.006.5520.00%17.24%16.67%15.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Braga (Visitante)

Previsão 60.83%1.64odd justa
EV -2.67%
Vantagem -1.67%
Kelly -4.45%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.85%60.75%60.91%62.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.451.541.541.6068.97%65.03%64.94%62.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.61%4.24odd justa
EV -0.845%
Vantagem -0.201%
Kelly -0.264%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.22%23.63%23.55%25.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.653.883.904.2027.40%25.78%25.64%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Moreirense FC (Local): 15.56%; Braga (Visitante): 60.83%; Empate: 23.61%. Para Moreirense FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.43. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.55, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.93%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯6.55I 15.27%NM 14.65%EV +1.93%E +0.294%K +0.347%G +0.007%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.90%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.46%EV -3.44%E -0.841%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.81%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 18:45
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +1.15%E +0.177%K +0.209%G +0.002%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 19:23
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -0.407%E -0.064%K -0.075%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.20%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.84%EV -4.50%E -2.86%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.04%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.45%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:13
BetUS🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.04%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.45%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:15
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:54
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -2.74%E -0.439%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -8.15%E -5.39%K -15.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.42%EV -5.85%E -0.968%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 18:45
GTbets🎯6.02I 16.61%NM 15.59%EV -6.32%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.88%EV -7.22%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 18:50
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.21%E -0.782%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 18:50
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:55
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:25
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -0.845%E -0.201%K -0.264%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 19:20
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:50
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:50
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 19:25
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:20
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 19:25
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.47%E -3.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 18:49
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 18:45
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -6.63%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.66%EV -10.58%E -7.20%K -22.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 19:20
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -8.19%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.43%EV -8.19%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.52%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 19:02
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.47%EV -10.52%E -1.83%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.56%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.55%EV -11.30%E -1.98%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.13%EV -11.80%E -8.14%K -26.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.29%E -2.71%K -3.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 19:25
BetOnline.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.88%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.88%EV -6.32%E -4.10%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -6.75%E -1.71%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.75%E -5.84%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 18:50
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -14.41%E -2.62%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -11.47%E -3.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 17:59
Casumo🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
betPARX🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:19
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.42%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -9.11%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:20
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -4.50%E -2.86%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.82%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -5.57%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -15.97%E -2.96%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.48%EV -9.97%E -6.74%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -7.93%E -2.03%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -12.65%E -3.42%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -20.64%E -4.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.85%EV -5.71%E -3.69%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.74%EV -22.19%E -4.44%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.30%EV -13.83%E -3.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 19:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.60%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-08-09 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:10
Matchbook◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-08-09 19:25
Kalshi◎6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%2.1%2026-08-09 19:10