L’École des cotes

Gil Vicente v Arouca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Score final : Gil Vicente 1–3 Arouca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prévision 57.51%1.74cote équitable
EV -2.80%
Avantage -1.66%
Kelly -4.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.69

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.81%57.51%57.48%59.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.551.631.621.6964.52%61.31%61.73%59.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arouca (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.79%5.32cote équitable
EV -0.432%
Avantage -0.081%
Kelly -0.100%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.64%18.77%18.83%20.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.504.914.905.3022.22%20.38%20.41%18.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.70%4.22cote équitable
EV -2.83%
Avantage -0.691%
Kelly -0.914%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.80%23.72%23.69%26.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.853.854.1030.30%25.99%25.97%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
GTbets1.69I 59.17%NM 56.31%EV -2.80%E -1.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.46%EV -7.81%E -2.01%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 16:25
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.85%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%EV -0.432%E -0.081%K -0.100%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.82%EV -3.31%E -0.811%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:13
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:14
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:10
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 58.22%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.23%EV -0.995%E -0.189%K -0.233%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.55%EV -3.31%E -0.811%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 17:19
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 17:19
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:09
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.47%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:09
PointsBet (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 18:10
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 18:09
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.92%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.45%EV -4.02%E -0.992%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 15:39
Bet Right1.64I 60.98%NM 56.80%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 17:19
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 17:19
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.87%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -13.50%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 55.87%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -13.50%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -1.37%E -0.261%K -0.323%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 18:10
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:09
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:10
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 16:23
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:09
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:09
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 15:39
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-11 18:14
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -2.31%E -0.444%K -0.550%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:20
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.79%EV -7.10%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:24
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 16:24
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:09
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
LeoVegas1.61I 62.11%NM 55.87%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -11.70%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.99%EV -14.68%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 18:09
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 15:39
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.00%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.13%E -5.78%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 15:39
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.55%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -0.432%E -0.081%K -0.100%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.83%E -0.691%K -0.914%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -15.46%E -3.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -21.79%E -6.60%K -9.48%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-11 16:24
NetBet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.18%EV -10.85%E -7.00%K -19.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 59.01%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%0.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35