La escuela de los momios

Gil Vicente v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Final: Gil Vicente 1–3 Arouca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Gil Vicente (Local)

Predicción 57.51%1.74momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -4.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.81%57.51%57.48%59.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.631.621.6964.52%61.31%61.73%59.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 18.79%5.32momio equitativo
EV -0.432%
Ventaja -0.081%
Kelly -0.100%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.64%18.77%18.83%20.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.504.914.905.3022.22%20.38%20.41%18.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.70%4.22momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -0.691%
Kelly -0.914%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.80%23.72%23.69%26.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.853.854.1030.30%25.99%25.97%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
GTbets1.69I 59.17%NM 56.31%EV -2.80%E -1.66%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.46%EV -7.81%E -2.01%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 16:25
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.85%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%EV -0.432%E -0.081%K -0.100%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.82%EV -3.31%E -0.811%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-11 18:35
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -3.38%E -2.01%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:13
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.95%E -2.37%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:14
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:10
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -4.53%E -2.73%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 18:10
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 58.22%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.23%EV -0.995%E -0.189%K -0.233%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.55%EV -3.31%E -0.811%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 17:19
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-11 17:19
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:09
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.47%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:09
PointsBet (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 18:10
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -5.10%E -3.09%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -12.31%E -3.33%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 18:09
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.92%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.45%EV -4.02%E -0.992%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 15:39
Bet Right1.64I 60.98%NM 56.80%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 17:19
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 56.75%EV -5.68%E -3.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 17:19
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.87%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -13.50%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 55.87%EV -6.25%E -3.84%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -13.50%E -3.70%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -1.37%E -0.261%K -0.323%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-11 18:10
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:09
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:10
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 57.88%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -7.01%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:34
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 16:23
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 18:09
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-11 18:09
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 15:39
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%EV -6.83%E -4.21%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-11 18:14
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -2.31%E -0.444%K -0.550%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:20
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.79%EV -7.10%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:35
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.57%E -1.94%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:24
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 16:24
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:09
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -11.13%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
LeoVegas1.61I 62.11%NM 55.87%EV -7.40%E -4.60%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -11.70%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.99%EV -14.68%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 18:09
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.20%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.05%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -6.39%E -1.62%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 15:39
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.00%EV -7.98%E -4.99%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 18:14
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.13%E -5.78%K -15.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 15:39
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.55%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -0.432%E -0.081%K -0.100%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.83%E -0.691%K -0.914%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:10
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -9.94%E -2.62%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.81%EV -9.70%E -6.18%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -15.46%E -3.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -21.79%E -6.60%K -9.48%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-11 16:24
NetBet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.18%EV -10.85%E -7.00%K -19.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -8.76%E -2.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 59.01%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%0.9%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%1.2%2026-05-11 18:35