L’École des cotes

FC Porto v Santa Clara

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-16 14:30 UTC

Score final : FC Porto 1–0 Santa Clara

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Prévision 74.66%1.34cote équitable
EV -2.95%
Avantage -2.27%
Kelly -9.82%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
70.93%74.49%74.70%76.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.261.251.3083.33%79.54%80.00%76.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Santa Clara (Visiteur)

Prévision 8.98%11.14cote équitable
EV +7.71%
Avantage +0.643%
Kelly +0.701%
Croissance +0.054%

avec la cote maximale 12.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.92%9.05%8.99%10.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.5010.1310.0012.0011.76%9.87%10.00%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 16.37%6.11cote équitable
EV +8.35%
Avantage +1.26%
Kelly +1.49%
Croissance +0.124%

avec la cote maximale 6.62

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.61%16.46%16.31%19.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.525.506.6222.22%18.11%18.18%15.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet1.27I 78.74%NM 76.17%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.21%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%6.62I 15.11%NM 14.61%EV +8.35%E +1.26%K +1.49%G +0.124%3.4%2026-05-16 14:20
LowVig.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 75.38%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%6.1%2026-05-16 14:20
BetOnline.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 75.38%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%6.1%2026-05-16 14:20
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%7.2%2026-05-16 14:20
Pinnacle1.26I 79.37%NM 75.78%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%11.45I 8.73%NM 8.34%EV +2.77%E +0.242%K +0.266%G +0.007%6.01I 16.64%NM 15.89%EV -1.64%E -0.272%K -0.327%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 14:20
Coral1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Winamax (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 14:25
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 14:15
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 74.95%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -3.44%E -0.583%K -0.702%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 14:13
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.24%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.68%EV -3.51%E -0.326%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:20
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.17%E -6.64%K -35.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -23.70%E -2.79%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 14:25
GTbets1.27I 78.74%NM 74.04%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.76I 10.25%NM 9.63%EV -12.39%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.32%EV -5.73%E -0.995%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Fanatics1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 14:00
BetMGM1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 14:20
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 74.68%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:20
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:25
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.11%EV -8.00%E -0.780%K -0.864%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 14:23
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
NetBet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.16%EV -10.41%E -8.68%K -52.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.82%EV -6.71%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -21.46%E -2.45%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -8.35%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -21.46%E -2.45%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -8.35%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Coolbet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.81%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +7.71%E +0.643%K +0.701%G +0.054%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 14:25
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 14:25
BoyleSports1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 13:55
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 14:15
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 14:15
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +3.22%E +0.280%K +0.307%G +0.010%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -11.62%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +3.22%E +0.280%K +0.307%G +0.010%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -11.62%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 14:20
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Bet Right1.26I 79.37%NM 73.83%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.98%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 14:25
Bet Victor1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.62%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 14:19
betPARX1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Casumo1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Grosvenor1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Bally Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 72.66%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 14:25
TABtouch1.28I 78.13%NM 72.52%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.20%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (SE)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (NL)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 14:20
LiveScore Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 14:20
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 14:25
PMU (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 72.22%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Virgin Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 72.22%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:20
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 72.54%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 14:20
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -2.95%E -2.27%K -9.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -19.80%E -4.04%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 71.78%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -26.35%E -5.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-16 14:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.29I 77.52%NM 77.30%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.58%0.3%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.43%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.43%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-05-16 14:25
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.73%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.52%3.1%2026-05-16 14:15