La escuela de los momios

FC Porto v Santa Clara

Inicio: 2026-05-16 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Porto 1–0 Santa Clara

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Predicción 74.66%1.34momio equitativo
EV -2.95%
Ventaja -2.27%
Kelly -9.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.93%74.49%74.70%76.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.201.261.251.3083.33%79.54%80.00%76.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Santa Clara (Visitante)

Predicción 8.98%11.14momio equitativo
EV +7.71%
Ventaja +0.643%
Kelly +0.701%
Crecimiento +0.054%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.92%9.05%8.99%10.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.5010.1310.0012.0011.76%9.87%10.00%8.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 16.37%6.11momio equitativo
EV +8.35%
Ventaja +1.26%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.124%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.61%16.46%16.31%19.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.525.506.6222.22%18.11%18.18%15.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet1.27I 78.74%NM 76.17%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.21%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%6.62I 15.11%NM 14.61%EV +8.35%E +1.26%K +1.49%G +0.124%3.4%2026-05-16 14:20
LowVig.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 75.38%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%6.1%2026-05-16 14:20
BetOnline.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 75.38%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%6.1%2026-05-16 14:20
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.47%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV +1.47%E +0.237%K +0.283%G +0.004%7.2%2026-05-16 14:20
Pinnacle1.26I 79.37%NM 75.78%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%11.45I 8.73%NM 8.34%EV +2.77%E +0.242%K +0.266%G +0.007%6.01I 16.64%NM 15.89%EV -1.64%E -0.272%K -0.327%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 14:20
Coral1.28I 78.13%NM 74.18%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Winamax (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 14:25
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -1.80%E -0.300%K -0.360%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 14:15
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 74.95%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -3.44%E -0.583%K -0.702%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 14:13
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.24%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.68%EV -3.51%E -0.326%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:20
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.17%E -6.64%K -35.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -23.70%E -2.79%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -5.07%E -0.875%K -1.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 14:25
GTbets1.27I 78.74%NM 74.04%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.76I 10.25%NM 9.63%EV -12.39%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.32%EV -5.73%E -0.995%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Fanatics1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 14:00
BetMGM1.29I 77.52%NM 73.12%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 14:20
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 74.68%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:20
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:25
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Betclic (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.11%EV -8.00%E -0.780%K -0.864%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 14:23
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.89%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
NetBet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.16%EV -10.41%E -8.68%K -52.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.82%EV -6.71%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -21.46%E -2.45%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -8.35%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -21.46%E -2.45%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -8.35%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:20
Coolbet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.81%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +7.71%E +0.643%K +0.701%G +0.054%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 14:25
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 14:25
BoyleSports1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 13:55
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 14:15
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.98%E -1.82%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 14:15
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +3.22%E +0.280%K +0.307%G +0.010%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -11.62%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +3.22%E +0.280%K +0.307%G +0.010%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -11.62%E -2.15%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 14:20
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 14:20
Bet Right1.26I 79.37%NM 73.83%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.98%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 14:25
Bet Victor1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.62%EV -5.75%E -0.548%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -14.08%E -2.68%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-16 14:19
betPARX1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Casumo1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Grosvenor1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Bally Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.62%EV -3.69%E -2.86%K -12.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 72.66%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -14.89%E -2.86%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 14:25
TABtouch1.28I 78.13%NM 72.52%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.20%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (SE)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (NL)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.16%EV -4.44%E -3.47%K -15.85%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.11%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 14:20
LiveScore Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -5.18%E -4.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -16.53%E -3.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 14:20
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.68%E -5.34%K -26.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -1.26%E -0.115%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 14:25
PMU (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 72.22%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Virgin Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 72.22%EV -5.93%E -4.71%K -22.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:20
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 72.54%EV -7.42%E -5.99%K -30.94%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -14.73%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -18.17%E -3.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 14:20
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -2.95%E -2.27%K -9.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -19.22%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -19.80%E -4.04%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 71.78%EV -8.92%E -7.31%K -40.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -10.24%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -26.35%E -5.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-16 14:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.29I 77.52%NM 77.30%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.58%0.3%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.43%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.43%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%0.9%2026-05-16 14:25
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.1%2026-05-16 14:25
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.73%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.52%3.1%2026-05-16 14:15