L’École des cotes

FC Porto v Famalicão

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 19:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Prévision 67.31%1.49cote équitable
EV -1.73%
Avantage -1.19%
Kelly -3.76%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.23%67.35%67.28%69.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.381.381.4675.76%72.58%72.46%68.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Famalicão (Visiteur)

Prévision 11.96%8.36cote équitable
EV +14.78%
Avantage +1.54%
Kelly +1.72%
Croissance +0.254%

avec la cote maximale 9.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.09%11.83%12.08%13.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.007.938.009.6014.29%12.61%12.50%10.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.74%4.82cote équitable
EV -0.462%
Avantage -0.096%
Kelly -0.122%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.55%20.82%20.64%23.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.474.504.8026.67%22.35%22.22%20.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.09%EV +14.78%E +1.54%K +1.72%G +0.254%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 19:05
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.09%EV +14.78%E +1.54%K +1.72%G +0.254%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 19:00
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.63%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.44%EV +10.00%E +1.09%K +1.22%G +0.122%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.93%EV -4.82%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +7.60%E +0.845%K +0.951%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 19:14
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 19:01
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 19:15
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.06%EV -7.72%E -1.73%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 19:13
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:09
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:09
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:01
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:01
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:00
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:00
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 19:04
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.50%EV -1.73%E -1.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.18I 12.22%NM 11.87%EV -2.20%E -0.269%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.63%EV -6.89%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 19:25
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 19:04
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 13:00
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 19:09
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 17:34
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:10
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:01
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:00
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:24
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:19
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 19:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 19:01
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 17:34
PMU (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 19:01
Virgin Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 19:01
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 68.10%EV -11.15%E -8.45%K -34.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.66%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.00%EV -7.94%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:04
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 66.01%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.68I 13.02%NM 12.29%EV -8.18%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:39
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.08%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.49%EV -5.65%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 19:01
Winamax (DE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 16:45
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:19
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:20
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:20
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:19
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:04
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:01
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -10.21%E -2.36%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 19:24
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.83%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.27%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.58%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.15%EV -22.24%E -5.93%K -8.09%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-04 17:10
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -11.53%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:04
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -11.53%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:05
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.49%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -13.32%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.77%EV -7.72%E -1.73%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 19:05
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -13.32%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 16:45
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 18:45
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:45
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 19:14
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -4.42%E -3.12%K -10.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -10.83%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 19:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.69%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-04-04 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.69%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-04-04 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 70.17%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.49%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.4%2026-04-04 19:24
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.8%2026-04-04 19:19
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.8%2026-04-04 19:10
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 70.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62%1.9%2026-04-04 19:20