La escuela de los momios

FC Porto v Famalicão

Inicio: 2026-04-04 19:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Predicción 67.31%1.49momio equitativo
EV -1.73%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -3.76%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.23%67.35%67.28%69.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.381.381.4675.76%72.58%72.46%68.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Famalicão (Visitante)

Predicción 11.96%8.36momio equitativo
EV +14.78%
Ventaja +1.54%
Kelly +1.72%
Crecimiento +0.254%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.09%11.83%12.08%13.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.007.938.009.6014.29%12.61%12.50%10.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.74%4.82momio equitativo
EV -0.462%
Ventaja -0.096%
Kelly -0.122%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.55%20.82%20.64%23.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.474.504.8026.67%22.35%22.22%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.09%EV +14.78%E +1.54%K +1.72%G +0.254%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 19:05
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.09%EV +14.78%E +1.54%K +1.72%G +0.254%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 19:00
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.63%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.44%EV +10.00%E +1.09%K +1.22%G +0.122%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.93%EV -4.82%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +7.60%E +0.845%K +0.951%G +0.072%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 19:14
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 19:01
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 19:15
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.06%EV -7.72%E -1.73%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 19:13
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:09
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:09
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:01
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:01
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:00
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:00
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +1.63%E +0.191%K +0.217%G +0.004%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 19:04
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.50%EV -1.73%E -1.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.18I 12.22%NM 11.87%EV -2.20%E -0.269%K -0.306%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.63%EV -6.89%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 19:25
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 19:04
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 13:00
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 19:09
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 17:34
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 19:10
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:01
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:00
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:24
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:19
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 19:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 19:01
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 17:34
PMU (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 19:01
Virgin Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -8.76%E -1.99%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 19:01
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 68.10%EV -11.15%E -8.45%K -34.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -4.35%E -0.544%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.66%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 19:01
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.00%EV -7.94%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 19:04
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 66.01%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.68I 13.02%NM 12.29%EV -8.18%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -9.79%E -2.25%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:39
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.08%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.49%EV -5.65%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 19:01
Winamax (DE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -7.12%E -5.16%K -18.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 16:45
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:19
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:20
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:20
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:19
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.90%E -3.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:04
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 19:01
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -10.21%E -2.36%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 19:24
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -9.14%E -6.77%K -26.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -10.83%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.27%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.58%EV -10.33%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.15%EV -22.24%E -5.93%K -8.09%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-04 17:10
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -11.53%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:04
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%EV -3.75%E -2.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -11.53%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -11.87%E -2.79%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:05
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.49%EV -6.44%E -4.64%K -16.52%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -13.32%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.77%EV -7.72%E -1.73%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 19:05
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.51%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -13.32%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 16:45
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -0.462%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 18:45
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.50%E -0.316%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 18:45
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.68%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 19:14
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -4.42%E -3.12%K -10.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -16.31%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -10.83%E -2.52%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 19:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.69%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-04-04 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.69%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-04-04 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 70.17%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.49%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.4%2026-04-04 19:24
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.8%2026-04-04 19:19
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.8%2026-04-04 19:10
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 70.57%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62%1.9%2026-04-04 19:20