La escuela de los momios

Famalicão v Nacional

Inicio: 2026-03-21 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Predicción 59.89%1.67momio equitativo
EV -2.38%
Ventaja -1.46%
Kelly -3.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.34%59.91%60.09%62.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.571.6366.67%63.73%63.69%61.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nacional (Visitante)

Predicción 17.43%5.74momio equitativo
EV +4.57%
Ventaja +0.761%
Kelly +0.913%
Crecimiento +0.042%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.45%17.35%17.30%18.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.325.256.0020.41%18.80%19.05%16.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.68%4.41momio equitativo
EV -2.24%
Ventaja -0.520%
Kelly -0.677%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.65%22.74%22.60%24.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.034.004.3127.78%24.82%25.00%23.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
SportsBet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +4.57%E +0.761%K +0.913%G +0.042%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 15:24
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +4.57%E +0.761%K +0.913%G +0.042%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 15:25
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -10.16%E -6.78%K -20.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.57%E +0.761%K +0.913%G +0.042%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:15
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +4.57%E +0.761%K +0.913%G +0.042%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 15:23
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 61.00%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.53%EV +1.60%E +0.275%K +0.332%G +0.005%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.47%EV -2.69%E -0.628%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-21 15:19
PMU (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -10.16%E -6.78%K -20.33%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV +1.08%E +0.186%K +0.225%G +0.002%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-21 15:25
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.73%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV +0.210%E +0.036%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.58%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 15:24
BetOnline.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.73%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV +0.210%E +0.036%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.58%EV -3.60%E -0.847%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 15:25
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 60.22%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.61I 17.83%NM 17.28%EV -2.23%E -0.398%K -0.484%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.50%EV -2.24%E -0.520%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.93%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.97%EV -2.40%E -0.429%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.47%E -0.574%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 15:25
Bovada1.55I 64.52%NM 60.60%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV -2.40%E -0.429%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.63%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 15:23
BetUS1.55I 64.52%NM 60.60%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV -2.40%E -0.429%K -0.523%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.63%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 15:24
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.81%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -4.15%E -0.754%K -0.922%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 15:00
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -4.15%E -0.754%K -0.922%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 14:35
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.15%E -0.754%K -0.922%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 15:19
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -4.15%E -0.754%K -0.922%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 14:39
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -4.15%E -0.754%K -0.922%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:09
GTbets1.58I 63.29%NM 59.09%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.46I 18.32%NM 17.10%EV -4.84%E -0.887%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.82%EV -11.09%E -2.83%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:18
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -5.89%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:15
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -5.89%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:15
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -5.89%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -5.87%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 15:20
Parions Sport (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.85%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.13%EV -5.89%E -1.09%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 15:24
NetBet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.15%EV -9.57%E -6.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -7.63%E -1.44%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 15:24
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 14:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 14:34
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:09
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 15:00
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 14:35
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 15:15
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -8.37%E -5.47%K -15.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -8.50%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 15:22
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 57.93%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -9.38%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.41%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 15:25
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.93%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -9.38%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.41%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 15:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -9.38%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 14:35
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -9.38%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 14:35
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.45%EV -7.77%E -5.04%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.90%EV -9.38%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.47%E -0.574%K -0.748%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:24
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:24
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:25
BetRivers1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:24
Bally Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:25
betPARX1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-21 15:25
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 57.34%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-21 14:34
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.49%EV -3.58%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 14:34
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -12.67%E -3.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 15:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -12.67%E -3.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 15:25
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -12.67%E -3.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 15:25
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -4.18%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -11.12%E -2.18%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -12.67%E -3.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 15:25
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 14:34
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 15:19
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 15:04
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 15:05
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 15:00
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 15:04
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -8.97%E -5.90%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -4.74%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 15:24
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 15:25
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 14:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.25%EV -10.16%E -6.78%K -20.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -12.86%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.27%EV -18.34%E -5.10%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-21 15:24
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 57.81%EV -7.17%E -4.63%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -14.60%E -2.98%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -14.94%E -3.98%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-21 15:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 62.06%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.99%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.96%0.1%2026-03-21 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%0.4%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-03-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-03-21 15:24
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-03-21 15:25
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 61.95%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.76%2.2%2026-03-21 15:24