Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Famalicão v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 20:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Famalicão (Local)

Prediction 60.91%1.64fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -6.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.35%60.87%60.87%62.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.541.541.5867.57%65.01%64.94%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 15.34%6.52fair odd
EV -0.258%
Edge -0.040%
Kelly -0.047%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.34%15.35%15.39%16.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.946.006.5018.52%16.83%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV -0.252%
Edge -0.060%
Kelly -0.079%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%23.78%23.73%25.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.854.2029.41%25.75%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Famalicão (Local): 60.91%; Casa Pia (Visit): 15.34%; Draw: 23.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -0.252%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.04%EV -3.77%E -2.39%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-23 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.04%EV -3.77%E -2.39%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-23 19:20
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.76%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.15%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-23 20:09
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.38%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.18%EV -2.56%E -0.403%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.45%EV -2.39%E -0.581%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-23 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.58%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.58%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 16:55
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-23 19:24
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-23 19:19
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 15.96%EV -9.31%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 20:10
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.50%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 19:40
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:20
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.58%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-23 20:09
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.61%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-23 19:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.17%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.17%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.28%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 19:24
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-23 19:54
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-23 19:40
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-23 19:34
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.52%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-23 19:39
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-23 16:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -12.53%E -2.20%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 19:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.29%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.20%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-23 16:55
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-23 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-23 20:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.24%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.80%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-23 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -17.14%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -17.14%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -2.56%E -0.403%K -0.478%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-23 20:09
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.75%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-23 19:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.35%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.80%EV -9.04%E -2.36%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-23 19:49
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.43%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.60%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-23 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:40
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.35%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.91%EV -15.60%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.74%EV -19.25%E -5.66%K -8.02%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-23 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.99%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-23 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.57%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.20%EV -9.46%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-23 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.13%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-02-23 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.13%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-02-23 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-02-23 20:00
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-02-23 20:10
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 62.17%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%1.8%2026-02-23 20:10