Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Famalicão v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-02-23 20:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Famalicão (Local)

Predicción 60.91%1.64momio equitativo
EV -3.77%
Ventaja -2.39%
Kelly -6.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.35%60.87%60.87%62.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.541.541.5867.57%65.01%64.94%63.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 15.34%6.52momio equitativo
EV -0.258%
Ventaja -0.040%
Kelly -0.047%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.34%15.35%15.39%16.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.405.946.006.5018.52%16.83%16.67%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.75%4.21momio equitativo
EV -0.252%
Ventaja -0.060%
Kelly -0.079%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.08%23.78%23.73%25.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.883.854.2029.41%25.75%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Famalicão (Local): 60.91%; Casa Pia (Visitante): 15.34%; Empate: 23.75%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.21. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.20, con un valor esperado de -0.252%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.04%EV -3.77%E -2.39%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-23 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.04%EV -3.77%E -2.39%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-23 19:20
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.76%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.15%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -0.252%E -0.060%K -0.079%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-23 20:09
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.38%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.18%EV -2.56%E -0.403%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.45%EV -2.39%E -0.581%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-23 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.58%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.58%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 16:55
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.63%E -0.641%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-23 19:24
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-23 19:19
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 15.96%EV -9.31%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 20:10
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.46%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.50%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 19:40
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:20
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 19:20
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.58%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-23 20:09
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.61%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-23 19:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.17%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.17%EV -5.60%E -3.61%K -10.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.28%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.52%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 19:24
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-23 19:54
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.21%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-23 19:40
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-23 19:34
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.52%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-23 19:39
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-23 16:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -12.53%E -2.20%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 19:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 20:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.29%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.20%EV -14.07%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-23 16:55
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-23 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -1.79%E -0.280%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-23 20:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.24%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-23 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.80%EV -4.09%E -0.655%K -0.780%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-23 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -17.14%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -17.14%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.76%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -2.56%E -0.403%K -0.478%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-23 20:09
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.75%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-23 19:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.35%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -11.77%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.80%EV -9.04%E -2.36%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-23 19:49
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.43%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -15.60%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-23 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -0.258%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-23 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.38%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-23 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:40
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -7.93%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.35%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.91%EV -15.60%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.74%EV -19.25%E -5.66%K -8.02%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-23 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.99%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -11.00%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-23 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.57%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.20%EV -9.46%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -12.13%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-23 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.13%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-02-23 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.13%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-02-23 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-02-23 20:00
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%1.0%2026-02-23 20:10
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 62.17%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%1.8%2026-02-23 20:10