L’École des cotes

Famalicão v Benfica

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 17:00 UTC

Score final : Famalicão 2–2 Benfica

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Prévision 18.48%5.41cote équitable
EV +4.22%
Avantage +0.748%
Kelly +0.909%
Croissance +0.038%

avec la cote maximale 5.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.50%18.38%18.54%20.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.185.105.6422.22%19.32%19.61%17.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Benfica (Visiteur)

Prévision 57.87%1.73cote équitable
EV -2.78%
Avantage -1.65%
Kelly -4.08%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.68

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.87%58.06%57.76%60.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.491.591.601.6867.11%62.97%62.50%59.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.65%4.23cote équitable
EV -0.666%
Avantage -0.158%
Kelly -0.208%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.15%23.56%23.69%25.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.963.954.2029.41%25.27%25.32%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet5.64I 17.73%NM 17.22%EV +4.22%E +0.748%K +0.909%G +0.038%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 16:55
ATG (SE)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -9.72%E -6.23%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:21
Svenska Spel5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -9.72%E -6.23%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:20
Casumo5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
Grosvenor5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
Bally Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
betPARX5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
BetRivers5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -10.88%E -7.06%K -20.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:21
TABtouch5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -10.88%E -7.06%K -20.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:25
Pinnacle5.53I 18.08%NM 17.39%EV +2.19%E +0.395%K +0.482%G +0.011%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.37%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.23%EV -2.08%E -0.504%K -0.664%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-02 16:55
Coolbet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:20
Unibet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:40
Unibet (NL)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:20
Unibet (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:20
LiveScore Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -12.04%E -7.92%K -23.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.53%EV -12.62%E -8.35%K -24.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 16:20
PMU (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -13.19%E -8.80%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Virgin Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -13.19%E -8.80%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:20
FanDuel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -0.217%E -0.040%K -0.049%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.75%EV -7.99%E -5.02%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:14
LeoVegas5.40I 18.52%NM 16.64%EV -0.217%E -0.040%K -0.049%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.31%EV -13.77%E -9.24%K -28.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 16:20
GTbets5.36I 18.66%NM 17.35%EV -0.956%E -0.178%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -8.56%E -5.42%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.79%EV -7.52%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 16:50
Bovada5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.06%E -0.390%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:56
Tipico (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -2.06%E -0.390%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 16:45
Coral5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:11
Betr (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Bet Right5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:20
PointsBet (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:01
Everygame5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:55
Marathon Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -3.91%E -0.752%K -0.932%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -7.99%E -5.02%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:55
BetOnline.ag5.10I 19.61%NM 18.57%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.75%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:55
BetUS5.05I 19.80%NM 18.61%EV -6.68%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.30%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Unibet (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.51%E -2.74%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:45
DraftKings5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.51%E -2.74%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:39
LowVig.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Ladbrokes (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Neds5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:59
Sky Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 16:45
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 09:11
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:45
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:55
SportsBet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:45
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 16:55
betfred_uk5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.31%E -3.02%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 16:00
Betsson4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -8.53%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:55
NetBet (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -9.46%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Betclic (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 19.29%EV -10.38%E -2.14%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.03%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 16:44
PlayUp4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -10.38%E -2.14%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -5.67%E -3.48%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -8.94%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 16:55
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:00
Unibet (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.01%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -8.94%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 16:39
BoyleSports4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 16:55
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -13.15%E -2.80%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -2.78%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 16:45
Winamax (DE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -15.00%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 16:40
Winamax (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -16.85%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.11%EV -8.56%E -5.42%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -16.85%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -19.59%E -5.76%K -8.16%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-02 16:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Matchbook6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Smarkets5.90I 16.95%NM 16.63%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.92%1.9%2026-05-02 16:55
Kalshi5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52%2.0%2026-05-02 16:55