La escuela de los momios

Famalicão v Benfica

Inicio: 2026-05-02 17:00 UTC

Final: Famalicão 2–2 Benfica

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Predicción 18.48%5.41momio equitativo
EV +4.22%
Ventaja +0.748%
Kelly +0.909%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.50%18.38%18.54%20.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.185.105.6422.22%19.32%19.61%17.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Benfica (Visitante)

Predicción 57.87%1.73momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -1.65%
Kelly -4.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.87%58.06%57.76%60.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.491.591.601.6867.11%62.97%62.50%59.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.65%4.23momio equitativo
EV -0.666%
Ventaja -0.158%
Kelly -0.208%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.15%23.56%23.69%25.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.963.954.2029.41%25.27%25.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet5.64I 17.73%NM 17.22%EV +4.22%E +0.748%K +0.909%G +0.038%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 16:55
ATG (SE)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -9.72%E -6.23%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:21
Svenska Spel5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -9.72%E -6.23%K -17.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:20
Casumo5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
Grosvenor5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
Bally Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
betPARX5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -10.30%E -6.65%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -3.03%E -0.739%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:20
BetRivers5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -10.88%E -7.06%K -20.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:21
TABtouch5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV +3.48%E +0.621%K +0.756%G +0.026%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -10.88%E -7.06%K -20.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 16:25
Pinnacle5.53I 18.08%NM 17.39%EV +2.19%E +0.395%K +0.482%G +0.011%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.37%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.23%EV -2.08%E -0.504%K -0.664%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-02 16:55
Coolbet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 16:20
Unibet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:40
Unibet (NL)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:20
Unibet (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 16:20
LiveScore Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -12.04%E -7.92%K -23.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.53%EV -12.62%E -8.35%K -24.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 16:20
PMU (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -13.19%E -8.80%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Virgin Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV +1.63%E +0.297%K +0.362%G +0.006%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -13.19%E -8.80%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:20
FanDuel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -0.217%E -0.040%K -0.049%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.75%EV -7.99%E -5.02%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:14
LeoVegas5.40I 18.52%NM 16.64%EV -0.217%E -0.040%K -0.049%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.31%EV -13.77%E -9.24%K -28.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 16:20
GTbets5.36I 18.66%NM 17.35%EV -0.956%E -0.178%K -0.219%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -8.56%E -5.42%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.79%EV -7.52%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 16:50
Bovada5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -2.06%E -0.390%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 16:56
Tipico (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -2.06%E -0.390%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 16:45
Coral5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:11
Betr (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:20
Bet Right5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:20
PointsBet (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:01
Everygame5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.99%E -0.569%K -0.703%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:55
Marathon Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -3.91%E -0.752%K -0.932%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -7.99%E -5.02%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 16:55
BetOnline.ag5.10I 19.61%NM 18.57%EV -5.76%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.75%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:55
BetUS5.05I 19.80%NM 18.61%EV -6.68%E -1.32%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.30%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Unibet (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.51%E -2.74%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:45
DraftKings5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.51%E -2.74%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:39
LowVig.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -7.76%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Ladbrokes (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Neds5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 09:11
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:59
Sky Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 16:45
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -0.666%E -0.158%K -0.208%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 09:11
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:45
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 16:55
SportsBet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:45
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 16:55
betfred_uk5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.61%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.31%E -3.02%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 16:00
Betsson4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -8.53%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.56%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 16:55
NetBet (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -9.46%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 16:55
Betclic (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 19.29%EV -10.38%E -2.14%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.03%EV -5.09%E -3.11%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 16:44
PlayUp4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -10.38%E -2.14%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -5.67%E -3.48%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -8.94%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 16:55
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 16:00
Unibet (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.01%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -8.94%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 16:39
BoyleSports4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -12.23%E -2.57%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.13%E -2.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 16:55
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -13.15%E -2.80%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -2.78%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 16:45
Winamax (DE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -15.00%E -3.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 16:40
Winamax (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -16.85%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.11%EV -8.56%E -5.42%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -6.58%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -16.85%E -3.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -19.59%E -5.76%K -8.16%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-02 16:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Matchbook6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-02 16:55
Smarkets5.90I 16.95%NM 16.63%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.92%1.9%2026-05-02 16:55
Kalshi5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52%2.0%2026-05-02 16:55