Language:English
Famalicão v Alverca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Famalicão (Local)
Prediction 57.07%1.75fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.05%56.99%57.08%58.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.631.7165.79%61.25%61.35%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alverca (Visit)
Prediction 19.44%5.14fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.206%
Kelly -0.256%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.70%19.47%19.46%20.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.714.755.0924.39%21.25%21.05%19.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.49%4.26fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%23.54%23.46%25.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.904.1029.41%25.77%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Famalicão (Local): 57.07%; Alverca (Visit): 19.44%; Draw: 23.49%. For Alverca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.09, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.81%EV -2.40%E -1.41%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 19.09%EV -1.05%E -0.206%K -0.256%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 24.11%EV -5.35%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-11 23:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -4.12%E -2.45%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -2.80%E -0.560%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -2.80%E -0.560%K -0.699%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-11 21:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.53%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -4.74%E -0.968%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-12 05:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.69%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -6.69%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 21:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 21:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 21:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -4.69%E -2.81%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.52%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.98%EV -5.26%E -3.17%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -5.83%E -3.53%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 05:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -5.83%E -3.53%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 05:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -5.83%E -3.53%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.97%E -4.28%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.26%EV -4.94%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -3.71%E -0.904%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.29%EV -6.97%E -4.28%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.25%EV -5.71%E -1.18%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -6.53%E -1.64%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 09:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.69%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -3.71%E -0.904%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.39%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -6.69%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 05:52 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -6.69%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 23:53 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-12 08:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-12 08:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -7.54%E -4.65%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -12.52%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-11 21:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.11%E -5.04%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 05:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.11%E -5.04%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.06%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 19:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.86%EV -8.68%E -5.43%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -3.77%E -0.762%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.44%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 21:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.24%EV -8.68%E -5.43%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.28%EV -7.66%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.40%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-12 07:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.67%EV -8.68%E -5.43%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -15.82%E -3.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.93%E -3.18%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-12 05:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.23%EV -10.39%E -6.62%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -12.52%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.50%EV -20.15%E -5.93%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.65%EV -10.97%E -7.03%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -14.46%E -3.29%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -10.75%E -2.83%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-11 20:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.07%EV -11.54%E -7.44%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.15%EV -8.63%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -7.23%E -1.83%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-12 09:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.07%EV -11.54%E -7.44%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.02%EV -9.60%E -2.06%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -13.10%E -3.54%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-11 20:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 55.59%EV -13.25%E -8.72%K -25.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.61%EV -20.29%E -4.95%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.80%EV -16.62%E -4.68%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-05-11 20:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 29.25% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 35.87% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.88% | 163.0% | 2026-05-12 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 29.25% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 35.87% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.88% | 163.0% | 2026-05-12 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 28.46% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.91% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 36.63% | 170.3% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |