L’École des cotes

Famalicão v Alverca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Score final : Famalicão 1–0 Alverca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Prévision 61.18%1.63cote équitable
EV -2.73%
Avantage -1.72%
Kelly -4.63%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.59

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
59.75%61.23%61.16%62.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.421.521.531.5970.42%65.61%65.36%62.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alverca (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.08%6.22cote équitable
EV +1.78%
Avantage +0.281%
Kelly +0.334%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 6.33

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.05%16.07%16.07%17.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.255.705.756.3319.05%17.56%17.39%15.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.74%4.40cote équitable
EV +0.077%
Avantage +0.017%
Kelly +0.023%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.84%22.69%22.77%24.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.074.054.4027.78%24.54%24.69%22.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.53I 65.36%NM 62.47%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.10%EV +1.78%E +0.281%K +0.334%G +0.006%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.44%EV -3.11%E -0.729%K -0.953%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -0.308%E -0.050%K -0.059%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -2.20%E -0.511%K -0.666%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:40
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 19:15
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 61.74%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -5.61%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.74%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -5.61%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:40
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:50
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:35
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.46%E -6.39%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 18:53
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.99%EV -2.73%E -1.72%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.24%EV -4.01%E -0.671%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.76%EV -3.11%E -0.729%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 19:20
GTbets1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -3.34%E -2.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 16.14%EV -4.49%E -0.756%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.16%EV -5.84%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 18:35
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:41
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 62.84%EV -13.13%E -9.25%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.03%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 19:02
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.33%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.93%EV -5.94%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:20
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV -6.74%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:40
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -1.52%E -0.350%K -0.455%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.87%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:44
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:41
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 60.50%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 18:41
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:35
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 19:25
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 18:35
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.30%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:39
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 61.52%EV -10.07%E -6.85%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.87%EV -8.35%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 19:01
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:00
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:01
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 62.79%EV -10.68%E -7.32%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV +0.077%E +0.017%K +0.023%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 18:40
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.68%EV -10.68%E -7.32%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.24%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 19:05
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:00
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:01
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:01
Bally Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:00
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 18:35
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:01
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:01
Unibet (NL)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
Unibet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 18:35
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:50
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:05
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.63%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -2.20%E -0.511%K -0.666%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 18:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.18%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -18.12%E -5.03%K -6.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-16 19:06
LeoVegas (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 19:00
LiveScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 19:00
Virgin Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:00
PMU (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.17%EV -7.62%E -5.05%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 19:06
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -14.78%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -11.30%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 19:05
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -15.58%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:36
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -15.58%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:20
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:20
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.42%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74%1.1%2026-05-16 18:36
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 62.66%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-05-16 19:20