La escuela de los momios

Famalicão v Alverca

Inicio: 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Final: Famalicão 1–0 Alverca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Famalicão (Local)

Predicción 61.18%1.63momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -1.72%
Kelly -4.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.75%61.23%61.16%62.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.421.521.531.5970.42%65.61%65.36%62.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alverca (Visitante)

Predicción 16.08%6.22momio equitativo
EV +1.78%
Ventaja +0.281%
Kelly +0.334%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.05%16.07%16.07%17.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.255.705.756.3319.05%17.56%17.39%15.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.74%4.40momio equitativo
EV +0.077%
Ventaja +0.017%
Kelly +0.023%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.84%22.69%22.77%24.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.074.054.4027.78%24.54%24.69%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.53I 65.36%NM 62.47%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.10%EV +1.78%E +0.281%K +0.334%G +0.006%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.44%EV -3.11%E -0.729%K -0.953%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -0.308%E -0.050%K -0.059%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -2.20%E -0.511%K -0.666%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:40
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 19:15
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 61.74%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -5.61%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.74%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -5.61%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:55
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:40
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:50
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:35
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.46%E -6.39%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -3.52%E -0.587%K -0.705%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 18:53
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.99%EV -2.73%E -1.72%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.24%EV -4.01%E -0.671%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.76%EV -3.11%E -0.729%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 19:20
GTbets1.58I 63.29%NM 60.69%EV -3.34%E -2.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 16.14%EV -4.49%E -0.756%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.16%EV -5.84%E -1.41%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 18:35
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:41
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 62.84%EV -13.13%E -9.25%K -31.26%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -5.13%E -0.870%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.03%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 19:02
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.33%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.93%EV -5.94%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 19:20
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV -6.74%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:40
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -1.52%E -0.350%K -0.455%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.87%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:44
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:41
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 60.50%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 18:41
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:35
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:40
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 19:25
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 18:35
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -7.54%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.30%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:39
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 61.52%EV -10.07%E -6.85%K -21.43%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.87%EV -8.35%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 19:01
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:00
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:01
Winamax (DE)1.46I 68.49%NM 62.79%EV -10.68%E -7.32%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV +0.077%E +0.017%K +0.023%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 18:40
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.68%EV -10.68%E -7.32%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV -9.96%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.24%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-16 19:05
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:00
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:01
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:01
Bally Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -4.57%E -2.93%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.75%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:00
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 18:35
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:01
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.18%E -3.34%K -9.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 19:01
Unibet (NL)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
Unibet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 19:00
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 18:35
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.47%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:50
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:05
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.63%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -2.20%E -0.511%K -0.666%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 18:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.18%EV -11.91%E -8.27%K -27.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -11.56%E -2.10%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -18.12%E -5.03%K -6.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-16 19:06
LeoVegas (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 19:00
LiveScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -6.40%E -4.18%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.02%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 19:00
Virgin Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.01%EV -7.01%E -4.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:00
PMU (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.17%EV -7.62%E -5.05%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -13.17%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -10.16%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 19:06
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -8.24%E -5.49%K -16.47%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -14.78%E -2.79%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -11.30%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 19:05
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -15.58%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:36
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -15.58%E -2.97%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -7.88%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:20
Matchbook1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-16 19:20
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.42%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74%1.1%2026-05-16 18:36
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 62.66%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-05-16 19:20