La escuela de los momios

Estoril v Gil Vicente

Inicio: 2026-02-22 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Estoril (Local)

Predicción 30.00%3.33momio equitativo
EV -0.391%
Ventaja -0.118%
Kelly -0.169%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.91%30.01%30.00%31.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.083.103.3234.72%32.45%32.26%30.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Gil Vicente (Visitante)

Predicción 42.30%2.36momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.620%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.03%42.24%42.33%43.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.232.202.3350.00%44.92%45.45%42.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.70%3.61momio equitativo
EV -2.22%
Ventaja -0.630%
Kelly -0.879%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.78%27.75%27.67%28.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.303.5333.33%30.02%30.30%28.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 28.92%EV -0.391%E -0.118%K -0.169%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.64%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -3.06%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 17:04
BetOnline.ag3.32I 30.12%NM 28.92%EV -0.391%E -0.118%K -0.169%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.64%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -3.06%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-22 17:04
Pinnacle3.31I 30.21%NM 29.27%EV -0.691%E -0.209%K -0.299%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.05%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -3.06%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 17:55
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -0.991%E -0.300%K -0.431%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 17:55
1xBet3.22I 31.06%NM 30.14%EV -3.39%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.37%EV -3.14%E -1.37%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.49%EV -2.22%E -0.630%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-22 17:55
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:04
BetUS3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.77%EV -7.37%E -3.36%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 17:55
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 17:19
FanDuel3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 17:20
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 17:19
GTbets3.16I 31.65%NM 29.87%EV -5.19%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.52%EV -6.10%E -2.75%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.60%EV -5.27%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 17:30
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-22 17:05
DraftKings3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 17:05
Bovada3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.52%EV -6.52%E -2.95%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 17:55
Everygame3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 17:55
Marathon Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -7.79%E -3.57%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.38%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 17:55
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.06%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-22 16:14
Unibet (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.06%E -0.873%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 16:15
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.44%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 16:15
PointsBet (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 17:05
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 17:05
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 17:20
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 17:05
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 17:05
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 17:04
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 17:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -15.40%E -7.70%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -16.90%E -5.63%K -8.45%G +0.000%15.6%2026-02-22 17:19
Svenska Spel3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 17:20
ATG (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 17:19
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 17:29
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 17:30
Betsson3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.10%E -2.75%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 17:30
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.10%E -2.75%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 17:29
Parions Sport (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -7.21%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-22 17:34
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -8.49%E -2.78%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -11.17%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -12.75%E -4.05%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 17:19
Betclic (FR)3.02I 33.11%NM 30.17%EV -9.39%E -3.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.38%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.45%EV -8.04%E -2.42%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-22 17:34
Grosvenor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 17:19
Casumo3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 17:19
betPARX3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 17:20
Bally Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -1.44%E -0.620%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 17:20
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -1.87%E -0.805%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 17:20
BetRivers3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -1.87%E -0.805%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 17:20
Unibet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:19
Unibet (NL)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:19
Unibet (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.98%E -3.07%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:20
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.94%E -3.16%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 16:15
NetBet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -10.33%E -4.87%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-22 17:55
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.17%E -5.32%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-22 17:04
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 15:50
LiveScore Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 15:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -2.71%E -1.18%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 15:49
Virgin Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -3.56%E -1.56%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.36%E -3.55%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-22 17:19
Winamax (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 17:05
Winamax (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -9.06%E -4.21%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 17:05
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -13.59%E -4.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -4.83%E -2.15%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.59%E -2.60%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-02-22 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-02-22 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-02-22 17:55
Matchbook3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%1.1%2026-02-22 17:55
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%1.5%2026-02-22 17:55