Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.73
assuming max odds 5.02
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 55.14%; Casa Pia (Visit): 20.18%; Draw: 24.68%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.33%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.96%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.17%EV +1.33%E +0.264%K +0.330%G +0.004% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.87%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.58%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -2.11%E -0.434%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 16:48 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 16:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 16:57 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.65%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 19.67%EV -3.52%E -0.736%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.68%EV -9.69%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.30%E -0.325%K -0.433%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.54%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.14%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 16:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.14%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 16:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -9.93%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.29%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.70%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.44%EV -8.16%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 24.86%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.76%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 10:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 10:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 16:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.19%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 16:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -12.60%E -2.91%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -2.53%E -0.641%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.88%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.31%EV -9.19%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 16:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.11%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 16:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -15.22%E -3.62%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 16:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -19.26%E -4.82%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.81% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98% | 0.1% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.91% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 16:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.66% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63% | 1.5% | 2026-09-20 17:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 05:44 |