La escuela de los momiosmomios.info
Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Nuevo modeloTodos los modelos

Estoril v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-09-20 17:01 UTC

Final: Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Estoril (Local)

Predicción 55.14%1.81momio equitativo
EV -4.61%
Ventaja -2.66%
Kelly -6.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.24%55.12%55.08%56.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.681.691.7361.73%59.47%59.35%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 20.18%4.95momio equitativo
EV +1.33%
Ventaja +0.264%
Kelly +0.330%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.14%20.27%20.24%22.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.644.605.0225.00%21.56%21.74%19.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.68%4.05momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.325%
Kelly -0.433%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.12%24.61%24.68%26.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.733.754.0028.57%26.82%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Estoril (Local): 55.14%; Casa Pia (Visitante): 20.18%; Empate: 24.68%. Para Casa Pia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.95. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.02, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.33%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.96%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.17%EV +1.33%E +0.264%K +0.330%G +0.004%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.87%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-20 16:45
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:45
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:44
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:45
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.10%E -0.224%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 16:49
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.58%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -2.11%E -0.434%K -0.547%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 16:48
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 16:58
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 16:57
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -3.11%E -0.649%K -0.820%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 16:44
GTbets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.65%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.67%EV -3.52%E -0.736%K -0.931%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.68%EV -9.69%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 14:00
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.30%E -0.325%K -0.433%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 10:54
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.54%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 08:45
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 17:00
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 16:44
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:54
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -4.12%E -0.868%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 17:00
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.13%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.14%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 16:20
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.14%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 16:19
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 10:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.61%E -2.66%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 10:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 10:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:00
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -9.93%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:44
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:44
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19%EV -9.57%E -5.84%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:45
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.29%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -7.15%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.70%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.44%EV -8.16%E -1.79%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.86%EV -7.71%E -2.06%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 10:54
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.16%E -3.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 10:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.26%E -3.68%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 10:54
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 10:54
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.76%EV -6.81%E -4.03%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 10:49
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 16:49
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.92%E -4.74%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 10:54
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 16:59
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.17%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 16:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.55%EV -9.02%E -5.47%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -11.19%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 16:58
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -12.60%E -2.91%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -5.71%E -3.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -2.53%E -0.641%K -0.858%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.88%EV -10.12%E -6.21%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.31%EV -9.19%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 16:38
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.11%EV -10.67%E -6.59%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -13.21%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 16:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -7.36%E -4.38%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -15.22%E -3.62%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 16:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -8.47%E -5.10%K -12.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -19.26%E -4.82%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -3.77%E -0.966%K -1.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 17:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.81%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-09-20 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90%0.4%2026-09-20 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90%0.4%2026-09-20 16:45
Smarkets◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.91%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.0%2026-09-20 16:45
Matchbook◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.66%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%1.5%2026-09-20 17:00
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-09-20 05:44