L’École des cotes

CF Estrela v FC Porto

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-26 17:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Prévision 10.60%9.43cote équitable
EV +16.59%
Avantage +1.51%
Kelly +1.66%
Croissance +0.275%

avec la cote maximale 11.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.58%10.55%10.62%12.16%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.509.179.0011.0013.33%10.90%11.11%9.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Porto (Visiteur)

Prévision 70.34%1.42cote équitable
EV -4.34%
Avantage -3.19%
Kelly -12.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.94%70.42%70.29%72.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.311.311.3680.00%76.17%76.34%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.06%5.25cote équitable
EV +3.14%
Avantage +0.581%
Kelly +0.712%
Croissance +0.022%

avec la cote maximale 5.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.92%19.03%19.09%21.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.204.884.905.4123.81%20.48%20.41%18.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +16.59%E +1.51%K +1.66%G +0.275%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +16.59%E +1.51%K +1.66%G +0.275%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.56%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 16:30
Casumo10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:31
BetRivers10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:30
Grosvenor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:30
betPARX10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.14%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.30%EV -9.97%E -7.79%K -35.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:31
Unibet (NL)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.30%EV -9.97%E -7.79%K -35.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.30%EV -9.97%E -7.79%K -35.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.67%E -8.40%K -39.53%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV +11.29%E +1.08%K +1.19%G +0.134%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.67%E -8.40%K -39.53%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -6.58%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 16:30
Coolbet10.00I 10.00%NM 9.56%EV +5.99%E +0.599%K +0.666%G +0.040%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.33%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 01:34
Tipico (DE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +5.99%E +0.599%K +0.666%G +0.040%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:10
Virgin Bet10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV +5.99%E +0.599%K +0.666%G +0.040%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -11.38%E -9.03%K -43.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV +5.99%E +0.599%K +0.666%G +0.040%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.02%EV -11.38%E -9.03%K -43.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV +5.99%E +0.599%K +0.666%G +0.040%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -12.08%E -9.66%K -48.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 16:30
1xBet9.95I 10.05%NM 9.74%EV +5.46%E +0.549%K +0.610%G +0.033%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.34%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.92%EV +3.14%E +0.581%K +0.712%G +0.022%3.2%2026-04-22 08:29
Betr (AU)9.75I 10.26%NM 9.56%EV +3.34%E +0.343%K +0.382%G +0.013%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.61%EV -7.16%E -5.42%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -10.40%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 01:35
PointsBet (AU)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV +0.692%E +0.073%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.42%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 01:34
Bet Right9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV +0.692%E +0.073%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.58%EV -7.16%E -5.42%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 01:34
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV +0.692%E +0.073%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 22:49
SportsBet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +0.692%E +0.073%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.90%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 22:45
Paddy Power9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +0.692%E +0.073%K +0.081%G +0.001%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.90%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 22:44
Marathon Bet9.20I 10.87%NM 10.14%EV -2.49%E -0.270%K -0.303%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 08:24
Fanatics9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -4.61%E -0.512%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +0.090%E +0.017%K +0.021%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-20 18:05
Unibet (UK)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -4.61%E -0.512%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.03%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:03
betfred_uk9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -4.61%E -0.512%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 01:35
Bet Victor9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -4.61%E -0.512%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-22 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)9.00I 11.11%NM 9.88%EV -4.61%E -0.512%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 68.94%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%EV -19.93%E -4.74%K -6.23%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-20 22:45
NordicBet8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -6.73%E -0.765%K -0.863%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.57%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -10.40%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 11:54
Betsson8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -6.73%E -0.765%K -0.863%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.57%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -10.40%E -2.21%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 11:54
Betclic (FR)8.75I 11.43%NM 10.61%EV -7.26%E -0.829%K -0.936%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.84%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 13:19
Pinnacle8.74I 11.44%NM 10.81%EV -7.36%E -0.843%K -0.951%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.03%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.17%EV -0.863%E -0.166%K -0.205%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 12:09
Unibet (FR)8.60I 11.63%NM 10.77%EV -8.85%E -1.03%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.71%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 13:19
BetUS8.55I 11.70%NM 10.98%EV -9.38%E -1.10%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.60%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -2.77%E -0.543%K -0.675%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 14:09
Bovada8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.69%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -1.82%E -0.353%K -0.438%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 11:55
888sport8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:09
Mr Green (SE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:09
888sport (SE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:10
William Hill8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.76%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-20 18:09
Betway8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 05:00
BoyleSports8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -9.44%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 18:01
Sky Bet8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:05
PlayUp8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -9.91%E -1.17%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -6.45%E -4.85%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -12.30%E -2.67%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 11:55
GTbets8.41I 11.89%NM 11.25%EV -10.86%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.11%EV -5.05%E -3.74%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.63%EV -3.15%E -0.620%K -0.772%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-20 21:50
NetBet (FR)8.25I 12.12%NM 10.97%EV -12.56%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.17%EV -9.27%E -7.18%K -31.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.86%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-23 12:00
LowVig.ag8.20I 12.20%NM 11.30%EV -13.09%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.18%EV -7.16%E -5.42%K -22.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 18:00
BetOnline.ag8.20I 12.20%NM 11.30%EV -13.09%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.18%EV -7.16%E -5.42%K -22.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 18:00
Coral8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -4.34%E -3.19%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -4.34%E -3.19%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 21:50
DraftKings8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -5.75%E -4.29%K -16.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 17:05
BetMGM8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.05%E -3.74%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.49%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 04:10
Everygame8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -15.21%E -1.90%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.56%E -6.59%K -28.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 12:45
Neds7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -17.86%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -5.05%E -3.74%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -17.86%E -2.30%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -5.05%E -3.74%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 21:50
Winamax (FR)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 13:20
Winamax (DE)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -20.51%E -2.73%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.86%E -6.00%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -4.68%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 13:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.85%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.21%1.7%2026-04-24 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.85%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.21%1.7%2026-04-24 00:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.85%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.21%1.7%2026-04-24 00:34
Smarkets10.50I 9.52%NM 9.21%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.19%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.60%3.4%2026-04-24 01:00
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 12.83%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.86%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%9.2%2026-04-24 03:35
Matchbook9.20I 10.87%NM 9.74%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%11.6%2026-04-23 21:40