Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:30 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–2 Famalicão

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV +1.00%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.466%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.55%31.97%32.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.903.1537.04%34.13%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 38.06%2.63fair odd
EV -0.658%
Edge -0.252%
Kelly -0.408%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.08%38.18%38.04%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.6145.45%41.86%41.67%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.87%3.35fair odd
EV +1.57%
Edge +0.462%
Kelly +0.654%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.45%29.85%29.87%31.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.4033.90%32.03%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 32.06%; Famalicão (Visit): 38.06%; Draw: 29.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -9.41%E -3.95%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV +1.57%E +0.462%K +0.654%G +0.010%7.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 13:25
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:23
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:25
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.87%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 13:25
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.18%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.41%E -3.95%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 13:25
GTbets🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.00%EV -6.69%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.19%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:34
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Bally Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:34
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 13:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.01%EV -10.55%E -4.49%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.38%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:33
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:34
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:33
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:34
BetUS🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:30
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:15
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -11.82%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -10.55%E -4.49%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 13:34
Pinnacle🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.85%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.81%EV -7.69%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.49%EV -5.09%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -8.59%E -2.81%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.08%EV -0.658%E -0.252%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:31
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.24%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -14.36%E -6.38%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-04 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.69%EV -13.43%E -4.97%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.37%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.94%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 13:30
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 13:30
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 04:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.94%EV -9.58%E -3.40%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.53%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.44%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.15%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.09%3.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.25%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.51%4.1%2026-09-04 14:35