Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela v Famalicão

Inicio: 2026-09-05 14:30 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–2 Famalicão

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela (Local)

Predicción 32.06%3.12momio equitativo
EV +1.00%
Ventaja +0.318%
Kelly +0.466%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.55%31.97%32.09%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.932.903.1537.04%34.13%34.48%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Famalicão (Visitante)

Predicción 38.06%2.63momio equitativo
EV -0.658%
Ventaja -0.252%
Kelly -0.408%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.08%38.18%38.04%40.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.392.402.6145.45%41.86%41.67%38.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.87%3.35momio equitativo
EV +1.57%
Ventaja +0.462%
Kelly +0.654%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.45%29.85%29.87%31.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.123.103.4033.90%32.03%32.26%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: CF Estrela (Local): 32.06%; Famalicão (Visitante): 38.06%; Empate: 29.87%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.35. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -9.41%E -3.95%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV +1.57%E +0.462%K +0.654%G +0.010%7.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 13:25
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:23
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -1.42%E -0.429%K -0.616%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:25
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.87%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 13:25
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -2.91%E -0.896%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.78%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.18%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.41%E -3.95%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 13:25
GTbets🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.00%EV -6.69%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.19%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:34
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Bally Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:35
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV +1.00%E +0.318%K +0.466%G +0.005%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 13:34
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 13:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.01%EV -10.55%E -4.49%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.38%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:33
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:34
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.22%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -6.79%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 14:33
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:34
BetUS🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.29%EV -5.73%E -1.95%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.08%EV -2.56%E -1.00%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.62%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:30
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.84%E -1.94%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:15
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -11.82%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -10.55%E -4.49%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -7.39%E -2.38%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 13:34
Pinnacle🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.85%EV -4.13%E -1.38%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.81%EV -7.69%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.49%EV -5.09%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -8.59%E -2.81%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.08%EV -0.658%E -0.252%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:31
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.61%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.24%EV -8.62%E -3.02%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -14.36%E -6.38%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-04 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.69%EV -13.43%E -4.97%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.37%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.94%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 13:30
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 13:30
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.75%E -2.75%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -2.20%E -0.723%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.41%EV -15.12%E -6.78%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.01%E -2.42%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.46%E -5.42%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 04:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -3.81%E -1.27%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -16.26%E -7.39%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.38%E -3.46%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -5.41%E -1.83%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.94%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.94%EV -9.58%E -3.40%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.53%EV -8.65%E -3.60%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.53%EV -11.87%E -4.02%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.44%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.15%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.09%3.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.25%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.51%4.1%2026-09-04 14:35