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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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CF Estrela v Académico de Viseu

Inicio: 2026-09-20 14:29 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 0–2 Académico de Viseu

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela (Local)

Predicción 43.43%2.30momio equitativo
EV -3.14%
Ventaja -1.41%
Kelly -2.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.82%43.55%43.42%45.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.112.122.2351.28%47.50%47.17%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Académico de Viseu (Visitante)

Predicción 28.35%3.53momio equitativo
EV +0.636%
Ventaja +0.179%
Kelly +0.250%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.45%28.24%28.36%29.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.343.303.5532.79%29.96%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.22%3.54momio equitativo
EV -1.23%
Ventaja -0.353%
Kelly -0.494%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.11%28.21%28.23%29.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.303.303.5031.25%30.31%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: CF Estrela (Local): 43.43%; Académico de Viseu (Visitante): 28.35%; Empate: 28.22%. Para Académico de Viseu (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.53. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.636%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:14
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:10
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:14
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -10.96%E -5.35%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +0.636%E +0.179%K +0.250%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -0.781%E -0.223%K -0.312%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:24
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.14%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -2.20%E -0.637%K -0.897%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.55%EV -4.34%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 14:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.20%E -0.637%K -0.897%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 14:04
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:24
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 14:19
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -14.44%E -7.33%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 14:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -14.44%E -7.33%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 14:14
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -14.44%E -7.33%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 14:14
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -14.87%E -7.59%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 14:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -14.87%E -7.59%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -14.87%E -7.59%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:14
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.82%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -15.31%E -7.85%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 14:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.46%EV -7.05%E -3.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.01%EV -5.88%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.53%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 14:18
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.96%EV -9.22%E -4.41%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.68%EV -5.88%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.36%EV -8.57%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 14:24
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:24
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.23%E -0.353%K -0.494%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 14:09
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.04%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 14:10
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.32%E -2.44%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 14:23
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:05
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:19
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:09
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.45%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.45%E -2.02%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:09
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 14:04
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.06%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 14:09
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:14
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:19
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.62%E -3.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.87%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:19
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 14:09
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -10.09%E -4.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -9.29%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -13.13%E -6.57%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.70%E -3.40%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.99%EV -11.83%E -5.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.53%EV -11.27%E -3.60%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 14:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -12.12%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -8.79%E -4.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -13.54%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-09-20 14:24
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-09-20 14:10